{"id":1597270,"date":"2024-10-02T15:17:28","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T19:17:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/?p=1597270"},"modified":"2024-10-02T15:17:28","modified_gmt":"2024-10-02T19:17:28","slug":"projecting-impact-creating-a-new-method-for-predicting-stars-in-the-nba-draft","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/news\/projecting-impact-creating-a-new-method-for-predicting-stars-in-the-nba-draft\/","title":{"rendered":"Projecting Impact: Creating a New Method for Predicting Stars in the NBA Draft"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I\u2019ve spent the last five months building a projectable impact charting system for the NBA Draft. In an attempt to continue improving my own scouting process, I hand-tracked thousands of individual plays to tabulate scores that hopefully project impact to the next levels. Unlike other impact metrics, the goal of my score is to capture whether or not plays a prospect makes indicate success in the future, rather than simply current impact.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here is the data as it stands today, sorted by their still-unnamed impact score per 40 minutes. I\u2019d love to normalize scores by possession but I unfortunately don\u2019t have access to that data. Before we dive into 2025 draft prospects, let\u2019s explain a bit more about my process of collecting this information and developing my process.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-media-max-width=\"560\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">updated the projectable impact sheet for the 2025 draft with a total minute cutoff of 100. excited to continue collecting data on this class <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HZY5pJOXXu\">https:\/\/t.co\/HZY5pJOXXu<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FiseE5qwVc\">pic.twitter.com\/FiseE5qwVc<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bjpf_\/status\/1840853057942249711?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 30, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I extrapolated the idea for this project from my in-person scouting process, where I\u2019d often note pluses and minuses when prospects make positive and negative plays. My goal here wasn\u2019t to represent a player\u2019s performance perfectly, but rather, to enhance my memory of players I watched live without the ability to rewind time.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Cognitive Biases<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Humans can\u2019t escape cognitive biases that confound our thinking and judgment. It\u2019s impossible to fully eliminate bias from draft scouting, but this project attempts to lessen my biases as much as possible. Here are the primary biases this impact-tracking project attempts to lessen:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Recency_bias\">Recency Bias<\/a>, <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">or the idea that we tend to favor recent events and memories rather than older ones. It\u2019s easy to attach our idea of a player to the game\/piece of information we most recently encountered. All of the impact scores exist regardless of when the games took place, though we can use the data to track improvement over time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Anchoring_effect\">Anchoring Bias, <\/a><\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">or our tendency to favor information we receive early in a decision-making process. It can be difficult to shake your first impression of a player, whether positive or negative. Quantifying the scouting process helps eliminate this time bias, similar to the recency bias point.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014 <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Aesthetic%E2%80%93usability_effect\">Aesthetic Bias<\/a>, <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">or our tendency to favor things we perceive as aesthetically pleasing. This is especially prevalent in scouting and a reason why some can overvalue inefficient shotmakers and undervalue quiet production. Take Keegan Murray for example, a prospect who I faded too hard because I overvalued aesthetics and undervalued his raw scoring production.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014 <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hot-cold_empathy_gap\">Hot-Cold Empathy Gap<\/a>, <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">or our tendency to underestimate the impact of emotional states on decision-making and thought processes. Underlying moods and emotional states can blur how we perceive certain players. Tracking and quantifying individual plays helps remain grounded, level-headed and present while scouting.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Explaining the Scoring<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What does the impact \u201cscore\u201d actually mean? The easiest way for me to conceptualize the scores is as a net total of a player\u2019s positive and negative moments on the court. I\u2019ll think about what a play suggests (or doesn\u2019t suggest) about a player\u2019s ability to translate to the next level in some way. I score plays on a scale from 0-2, with zeros being neutral plays, ones being solid positives and twos being strong positives.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The easiest way to explain this will be through examples. Take this Nolan Traore play for example.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-media-max-width=\"560\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">nolan traore&#8217;s acceleration is truly special, i don&#8217;t think he is the craziest passer ever but he will always get windows with that driving juice <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vqchOq4ZoC\">pic.twitter.com\/vqchOq4ZoC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bjpf_\/status\/1819244666489131074?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 2, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Traore burns his defender off of the dribble and wraps this pass around for an easy layup attempt. The initial advantage creation with Traore\u2019s elite acceleration earns him a point given the value of advantage-creating guards. The pass earns him another point due to the difficulty of the delivery and the size of the window, making this a +2 play for Traore.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s look at this Traore drive:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-media-max-width=\"560\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">i&#8217;m posting this to embed in an article, don&#8217;t really have anything to say about it tbh at this moment <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YJpjWpfOQw\">pic.twitter.com\/YJpjWpfOQw<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bjpf_\/status\/1841323258236359095?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Traore gets downhill here for an easy bucket. However, Traore benefits from two excellent screens on this stack action and poor defensive play. Though Traore does flash his speed, these kind of plays don&#8217;t translate, earning Traore no points.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here\u2019s another Nolan Traore play:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-media-max-width=\"560\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Down the stretch of this game, Monaco exploited Traore&#8217;s ineffectiveness as a scorer by switching their big onto him as well. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XlYOD6MVJP\">pic.twitter.com\/XlYOD6MVJP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ahmed Jama (@slipthescreen) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/slipthescreen\/status\/1837905040457048475?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 22, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The defense sags off of Traore due to his lack of shooting threat and he\u2019s unable to create an advantage, earning Traore a -1 here. To be clear, the minus isn\u2019t for the missed shot, but for Traore\u2019s lack of a shooting threat, which diminishes his advantage-creation potential.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another Traore play:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-media-max-width=\"560\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">A few plays later Saint Quentin runs Stack again vs the same hard hedging coverage, but this time Traore drives to his left. Unable to decelerate before making the corner kick, Traore draws a charge. 3 of Traore&#8217;s 4 TO&#8217;s were logged on drives to his left. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SlfygCtmI2\">pic.twitter.com\/SlfygCtmI2<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ahmed Jama (@slipthescreen) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/slipthescreen\/status\/1837902093379584257?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 22, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Traore turns the corner on the hard hedge and forces a rotation, earning him a +1 for the advantage created. He\u2019s unable to decelerate though and runs into a charge, earning him a -1 as Traore\u2019s struggles slowing down are concerning for his driving translation. In the end, this clip totals to a net of zero points.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s look at one more Traore play:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">the shot goes in but nolan traore&#8217;s speed could be such a weapon on the defensive end when he&#8217;s processing smoothly. understandably sinks to cover the roll and sprints out to make a solid contest when the ball never comes <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/BJQfl9xtQg\">pic.twitter.com\/BJQfl9xtQg<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bjpf_\/status\/1837227627972809201?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 20, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Traore sinks off of the far corner to deny a pass to the role before sprinting out to contest a jumper. Even though this shot falls, Traore earns a +1 here for his incredible closing speed, suggesting his potential as a ground coverage defender off of the ball.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Another way to conceptualize this score is as a heuristic for dominance. We often underrate prospects who consistently imprint themselves on games in a multitude of ways. This play-to-play dominance translates to many cases and the impact projection attempts to consider that fact.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This project isn\u2019t meant to be scientific or a replacement for traditional impact metrics for scouting the NBA Draft. Though I do my best to account for context, role, opponent quality, game situation and other confounding factors, there will be human error involved. To this point, I\u2019ve tracked and scored nearly 7,000 individual prospect minutes for the 2025 class. There are bound to be mistakes throughout as I keep refining my process.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I\u2019m excited to find out how my scores correlate with eventual success in the pros. If I had infinite time and resources, I\u2019d love to backfill games from old draft classes to learn more about how the scores correlate with NBA impact. That\u2019s a project for another day, though.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>2025 Draft Scores<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s return to the scores for the 2025 draft and what we can learn from them:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">updated the projectable impact sheet for the 2025 draft with a total minute cutoff of 100. excited to continue collecting data on this class <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HZY5pJOXXu\">https:\/\/t.co\/HZY5pJOXXu<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FiseE5qwVc\">pic.twitter.com\/FiseE5qwVc<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bjpf_\/status\/1840853057942249711?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 30, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predictably, Cooper Flagg tops the charts and it\u2019s not particularly close. This makes sense, as he\u2019s constantly impacting winning at a high level on both ends with high-level, NBA flashes throughout. He\u2019s the best defender I\u2019ve ever scouted at the high school level and the scoring reflects that. Flagg is incredibly consistent, as his lowest score in the nine games I\u2019ve tracked for him was a +12, which is still an extremely good number. These scores can help determine projectable impact even in games where box score production looks pedestrian.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Age is another important component here, as it\u2019s understandable for younger players to consistently impact games in a way that projects forward. Prospects like Ace Bailey, Drake Powell, Derrion Reid and Hugo Gonzalez don\u2019t score particularly well, but all have flashed high-level ability at some levels and can learn to better apply their excellent physical and athletic traits. Conversely, high-scoring young prospects like Flagg, Ben Saraf, Rocco Zikarsky, Nolan Traore and Dylan Harper could be encouraging for future projections.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More concerning are the older prospects who struggle to make positive plays consistently like Coleman Hawkins, Zeke Mayo and Payton Sandfort. These might be excellent college players, but it\u2019s harder to project 22+ year-olds to improve their ability to project to the next level than it is for younger prospects.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I spent far too many hours rigorously watching prospect film and refining my process here and will continue changing and refining things in the coming year. This is simply a starting point for a project that brings me joy and helps me scout more deeply and intentionally.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019ve spent the last five months building a projectable impact charting system for the NBA Draft. In an attempt to continue improving my own scouting process, I hand-tracked thousands of individual plays to tabulate scores that hopefully project impact to the next levels. Unlike other impact metrics, the goal of my score is to capture [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":368,"featured_media":1597519,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4898],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1597270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sports"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Creating a new method for scouting the NBA Draft - Project<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Learn about a new, hand-tracked projective impact method of scouting prospects for the NBA draft and for the 2025 Draft.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/news\/projecting-impact-creating-a-new-method-for-predicting-stars-in-the-nba-draft\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Creating a new method for scouting the NBA Draft - 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