{"id":1596187,"date":"2024-09-25T10:45:59","date_gmt":"2024-09-25T14:45:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/?p=1596187"},"modified":"2024-09-25T10:45:59","modified_gmt":"2024-09-25T14:45:59","slug":"the-2024-25-atlanta-hawks-are-a-better-team-than-you-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sportscasting.com\/news\/the-2024-25-atlanta-hawks-are-a-better-team-than-you-think\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2024-25 Atlanta Hawks are a better team than you think"},"content":{"rendered":"

To many people, this season is more of a rebuild for the Atlanta Hawks. After all, they <\/span>traded away<\/span><\/a> their second-best player, Dejounte Murray, to the New Orleans Pelicans, conceding that their decision to bring him on board was a misstep.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But those individuals are making a grave mistake: prioritizing star counting over proper roster building. In reality, what looks like a less talented team is actually a more balanced and versatile unit. <\/span>One that could sneak up on some teams in the Eastern Conference<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Addition By Subtraction<\/h2>\n

Last season, Trae Young missed 23 games from late February to early April. In that stretch, the Hawks went 12-11 (43-win pace in an 82-game season), which is much better than they performed in their other 59 games (24-35, 34-win pace). <\/span>During that time<\/span><\/a>, I wrote about how this span was evidence, not that the Hawks were better off without Young, but rather that Murray and Young <\/span>were not destined<\/span> to be backcourt partners.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to PBP Stats, Young and Murray posted a net rating of -5.71 in the 1,172 minutes they shared the court together in 2023-24. For reference, every other “star” duo in the league <\/span>had a positive net rating<\/span><\/a> in their minutes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another merit against their chemistry is that none of the Hawks’ top 5 lineups featured both <\/span>of the<\/span> guards on the floor <\/span>at the same time<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

2023-24 Atlanta Hawks Top 5 Lineups*<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lineup<\/b><\/td>\nNon-Garbage Time Possessions<\/b><\/td>\nPoint Differential per 100 Possessions (Percentile)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Young\/Bogdanovic\/Mathews\/Bey\/Okongwu<\/span><\/td>\n120<\/span><\/td>\n+18.2 (85th)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Murray\/Bogdanovic\/Bey\/Hunter\/Capela<\/span><\/td>\n149<\/span><\/td>\n+16.6 (82nd)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Young\/Bogdanovic\/Bey\/Johnson\/Okongwu<\/span><\/td>\n291<\/span><\/td>\n+14.5 (79th)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Murray\/Bogdanovic\/Krejci\/Hunter\/Capela<\/span><\/td>\n307<\/span><\/td>\n+12.5 (74th)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Murray\/Bogdanovic\/Bey\/Hunter\/Okongwu<\/span><\/td>\n170<\/span><\/td>\n+12.4 (73rd)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

*Data Provided by Cleaning the Glass<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Now, with Murray gone, the Hawks no longer have to worry about the suboptimal fit between the two. Plus, they ended up with the better player (Young’s offense is far superior, and Murray’s defense isn’t good enough anymore to make up the difference).<\/p>\n

Lineups That Make Sense<\/h2>\n

In basketball,<\/span> you can only put five people on the court at once.<\/span> To win, you need that <\/span>five-man<\/span> group to <\/span>have some blend of<\/span> on-ball creation<\/span><\/a>, spacing, rim pressure, perimeter defense, off-ball defense, and rim protection. At this point, Mu<\/span>rray a<\/span>nd Young really only provided on-ball creation. So, it was up to the other three players on the floor to fill those voids, and there are very few teams with three <\/span>role players<\/span><\/a> who can wear all those hats (hint: the Hawks weren’t one of them).<\/span><\/p>\n

Now, the Hawks have an extra spot in their lineups, making it much more likely that they can check all the necessary boxes. <\/span>And while they don’t have <\/span>top-tier personnel, they <\/span>do<\/span> have the pieces to <\/span>put together<\/span> some <\/span>pretty well-balanced lineups.<\/span> Here’s one example of what they can do.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hypothetical Lineup: Trae Young (PG)\/Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG)\/Dyson Daniels (SF)\/Jalen Johnson (PF)\/Clint Capela (C)<\/h4>\n

We already know that Young <\/span>is very capable of carrying<\/span> an o<\/span>ffense and being<\/span> a team’s primary decision-maker.<\/span> Bogdan Bogdanovic offers secondary creation, spacing, and off-ball defense. Dyson Daniels gives you perimeter defense, off-ball defense, and secondary rim protection (and hopefully soon, some spacing). Jalen Johnson is just a <\/span>flat-out monster, and if he develops properly, he gives you all six of those things to varying degrees.<\/span> Then, lastly, Clint Capela gives you rim pressure (as a roll threat) and rim protection.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is just one possible lineup permutation. Onyeka Okongwu is basically a younger version of Capela. So, he can come in there and fill the same role whenever they need him to. If the Hawks want to play a small ball center, they now have Larry Nance Jr., courtesy of the Murray Deal. If they <\/span>want<\/span> more shooting\/spacing, Zaccharie Risacher, Garrison Matthews, or Vit Krejci can come in for Daniels. De’Andre Hunter is still a solid three-and-D wing\/forward. We haven’t mentioned soon-to-be sophomore <\/span>combo guard<\/span><\/a> Kobe Bufkin. This team is sneaky deep.<\/span><\/p>\n

An Abundance of Youth<\/h2>\n

Along with their depth and lineup balance\/versatility, the Hawks have a lot of young players. And as a general rule, the more young players you have, the better the chances are that one (or more) of them takes a big step forward.<\/p>\n

Of the 12 players we mentioned above, six of them are under 25 years old.* That doesn’t include Young, who just recently (September 19) celebrated his 26th birthday.<\/p>\n

[*Sidebar #1: We aren’t even taking into account Nikola Djurisic [20], the Hawks 2024 second round pick who will be missing the first part of the season with a foot injury<\/a>.]<\/em><\/p>\n

Johnson is the most likely candidate to take a great ascension up the player hierarchy next season. Last season, he finished in the <\/span>98th percentile in DELTA<\/span><\/a> (a metric from Opta Analyst that tracks a player’s improvement <\/span>through the course of<\/span> the season). And given his player profile (he’s a great athlete with size and ball skills), there is hope that he still has <\/span>a lot<\/span> more room to grow.<\/span><\/p>\n

Daniels (21) fell out of the playoff rotation for the Pelicans down the stretch because of his outside shooting (31.1% 3-point shooter). But he’s a phenomenal defender (88th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus). So, if he can figure out that jumper (there’s still a chance, given his age), he could develop into one of the better role players in the league.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Dyson Daniels is set to have a breakout season in Atlanta<\/p>\n

Excellent PoA defender who improved gradually in his offensive game. He'll carry Trae Young defensively as the 2-guard He bulked up in the last few years, improving his rim-finishing: 59.8 season; will move to 65% this yr pic.twitter.com\/yKc799VSeM<\/a><\/p>\n

— Ersin Demir (@EDemirNBA) September 16, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n