Will Aidan O’Brien’s Auguste Rodin run in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe?

Monday’s first forfeit stage has seen Aidan O’Brien leave Auguste Rodin as one of five Ballydoyle entries for this weekend’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Aidan O’Brien was left kicking himself around this time last year when the ground at Longchamp turned up an ideal good-to-soft – but his stable star Auguste Rodin was not included in the entries for the Arc.

‘The lads’ at Coolmore had decided against a run in the race presuming there would be too much ease in the surface, instead opting to channel their full focus at the Breeders’ Cup Turf a month later in the United States.

Auguste Rodin ended up winning that race and collecting the £1.7 million top prize – but O’Brien recently admitted they had made a ‘mistake’ by dismissing the €5 million showpiece in Paris.

The Ballydoyle handler has vowed not to make that same mistake twice and the decision to include the son of Deep Impact in Sunday’s Group 1 over 1m4f could go down to the wire, weather dependent.

O’Brien told the Racing Post:

“Auguste Rodin is being kept on the go and in top gear for the Arc just in case the ground came up on the fast side. It probably won’t, but last year we didn’t go for it and the ground came up fast enough, so I said I won’t make the same mistake this time.”

Despite having won on soft and heavy goings earlier in his career, the horse’s best successes have come on fast ground and that is what he prefers – but anything with ‘good’ in the description could see him tackle the biggest financial test of his career in Europe.

The winner of the Arc will collect a hefty £2.5 million pay packet which would surpass his winnings from Santa Anita last year. He competed in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March, worth £2.7 million to the victor – but flopped as the 11-8 favourite and finished last.

The monetary potential of running in the Arc – especially as one of the market leaders, which he would be if the conditions are right – is something very hard to turn down.

Will Auguste Rodin run in the Arc?

At the moment, uncertainty continues to surround the ground conditions on Sunday. The GoingStick at Longchamp recorded both soft and good-to-soft as of Monday morning, which leaves Auguste Rodin’s status up in the air.

Occasional showers are forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday before a dry period leading up to raceday, which could turn the tide in the four-year-old’s favour with temperatures ranging from 15 to 18°C.

However, as we know the weather can be unpredictable and it could swing either way – but as it stands, it doesn’t look promising. Despite this, his price has began to shorten with the best horse racing betting sites who don’t appear to be taking any chances.

Auguste Rodin closed the weekend at as big as 40-1 for the Arc with some firms – which has since shortened to as low as 14, with 16 available generally and as big as 20 with a few.

If the ground doesn’t come up as hoped, the horse will finish his career in the Japan Cup on November 24th before he heads off to stud at Coolmore where he will become a popular sire.

Ballydoyle pair Los Angeles and Continuous are viewed as O’Brien’s guaranteed runners in the Arc, whilst Auguste Rodin is a maybe and Opera Singer and Luxembourg are unlikely.

Auguste Rodin has collected over £4.6 million worth of prize money in his career and if he does run in France he’ll be going in great shape following a narrow defeat in the Irish Champion Stakes earlier this month.

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His up-and-down career has always been a highly disputed topic within horse racing, as well as his debatable ‘superstar’ status – but the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Turf and Prince Of Wales’s Stakes winner can consider himself one of the elites.

Auguste Rodin has built an infamous reputation on the scene – as a horse who became the first to complete the British and Irish Derby double since 2016 – and as one who was partial to a mind-boggling flop as seen in the 2000 Guineas, the King George twice and in Meydan.

Ryan Moore would take the ride at Longchamp – another bonus –  and if successful it would be a third triumph in the race for O’Brien following glory in 2007 with Dylan Thomas and 2016 with Found.