Twitter Thread Explaining UEFA’s World Cup Qualifying Draw Raises Questions About Fairness

UEFA’s upcoming draw for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers has sparked concerns among football fans and analysts alike.

Freelance football writer Huw Davies has raised serious questions about the fairness of the process, suggesting that it may be “managed” rather than truly random.

The root of the issue lies in UEFA’s revamped Nations League format, which now includes quarterfinals in March 2025.

This means that several top European teams will be engaged in knockout matches during the same period as the World Cup qualifiers.

The Nations League finals now have quarter-finals. March 2025 is a knockout bonanza: League A's winners and runners-up face off in NL QFs while 3rd (of 4) has a pro/rel play-off with the runners-up in League B, and B's 3rd faces C's 2nd in the same way. Here, UEFA made it pretty: pic.twitter.com/jL9oCdR8ZQ

— Huw Davies (@thehuwdavies) September 3, 2024

To accommodate this, UEFA have proposed a qualifying system that places these teams in smaller groups of four, potentially giving them an advantage over opponents in larger groups.

Davies’ analysis reveals that the seeding for these groups could be skewed in favour of certain teams.

Based on FIFA rankings, the top-seeded teams in the smaller groups are likely to be stronger than those in the larger groups, creating an uneven playing field.

Like a gardener, UEFA still want to seed their pots, but now the top teams are in groups of 4 as it's mostly League A and B sides who are busy in March. They're blue in these hypothetical pots based on FIFA rankings. See the issue? Just look at the difference in quality in Pot 2! pic.twitter.com/HHqqeLRo3z

— Huw Davies (@thehuwdavies) September 3, 2024

Moreover, the possibility of teams being moved between groups based on their Nations League performance adds another layer of complexity and potential manipulation.

While UEFA insists that the draw will be fair and transparent, Davies’ findings raise serious concerns about the integrity of the process.

Some argue that the scheduling conflicts caused by the Nations League format have forced UEFA into a corner, leaving them with no choice but to adopt a system that favours certain teams.

As the draw approaches, football fans will be watching closely to see if UEFA can address these concerns and ensure a fair and competitive qualifying process for the 2026 World Cup.

🚨 📰 UEFA and FIFA have agreed to the format for the World Cup Qualifying draw. There are A LOT of stipulations as it relates to the draw. Again, thanks to @Cramao_dk for this info.

– 8 Nations League Quarterfinalists in Pot 1 along with the 4 highest ranked teams in the…

— We Global Football (@We_Global) September 3, 2024