Horse Racing
St Leger 2024 Trends: Does Market Leader Illinois Tick The Key Doncaster Stats?
Andy is a horse racing journalist and betting expert who specializes in trends and stats. With his long association with TrainersQuotes and FromTheStables, Andy has also built up solid contacts with some of the best stables in the UK. Has written for GeeGeez and bookmakers Matchbook and BetBright in the past too, plus was the former sports betting editor of odds comparison site Easyodds and Juicestorm. Has also appeared on betting podcasts for MatchBook and has featured in the popular Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Guide in the past. Andy's also ghost written for former top jockey Richard Dunwoody and continues to have a monthly column in the Racing Ahead horse racing magazine. Now a regular on Sportscasting giving his views, trends and tips mainly on horse racing - if there's a stat to be explored and it's a sport, Andy is sure to find a betting angle to use.
Get to know Andy Newton betterPublished13 Sep 2024
Use our key St Leger 2024 trends ahead of the final British Classic horse race of the season. The Aidan O’Brien-trained Illinois is one of the big fancies for the race – but does the talented 3 year-old tick the main Doncaster stats?
Trainer Aidan O’Brien Is Looking For His Eighth St Leger Win
The St Leger 2024 will once again revolve around trainer Aidan O’Brien as the Ballydoyle handler will be looking for his eighth success in the race.
O’Brien will have a strong hand once more with his Galileo colt Illinois the one heading most of the markets with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK.
It was only last month (Aug 21st) when horse racing fans last saw Illinois in action, when a neck second to stablemate Los Angeles in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at the York Ebor Festival (watch below).
That race has often been a good guide ahead of the Doncaster classic – with 9 of the last 22 St Leger winners also taking in that race and three doing the double over that period.
The good news for his backers too is that his conqueror that day Los Angeles is expected to miss the St Leger – with that horse heading to Leopardstown to take in the Irish Champion Stakes, before – maybe – a tilt at the Arc at Longchamp.
Read on as we look at the St Leger 2024 in more detail and if the big fancy Illinois has any big stats against him landing the race.
When Is The St Leger 2024?
đź“…Date: Saturday 14th September 2024
⌚Time: 3:40pm
🏇Racecourse: Doncaster
đź’°Winning Purse: ÂŁ421,355
đź“ş TV: ITV and Racing TV
St Leger 2024 Trends and Stats
See below our 22 St Leger trends that you can use to apply to the 2024 runners – putting history on your side and finding the best profiles based on past winners of the Doncaster classic.
- 19/22 – 2 or 3 previous wins
- 19/22 – Never raced at Doncaster
- 19/22 – Top 3 finish last time out
- 18/22 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
- 18/22 – Favourites placed
- 17/22 – Won a Group race
- 17/22 – Won over at least 1m3f
- 15/22 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
- 14/22 – Yet to race over 1m6f or further
- 13/22 – Won their last race
- 13/22 – Officially rated 109 to 115
- 13/22 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
- 9/22 – Raced in the Great Voltigeur last time out (3 won it)
- 9/22 – Favourites (1 joint)
- 6/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- 4/22 – Trained by John Gosden
- 4/22 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (7 in total)
- 3/22 – Raced in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
- 3/22 – Ridden by jockey William Buick
- 3/22 – Ridden by jockey Ryan Moore
- 2/22 – Winners from stall 1
- Godolphin have won the race 7 times
- Aidan O’Brien has trained 7 winners of the race
- The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 6/1
Look For A Top Three Finish Last Time Out
Most of the St Leger 2024 runners will fit the bill here – including Illinois, who was second last time out – but this is still a big stat that could rule out the David Menuisier-trained Sunway.
This 3 year-old colt was last seen running fourth (of 9) at Ascot in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in July and with a massive 86% of the last 22 St Leger winners hitting a top three finish last time out – this would be a big negative for him.
59% Of The Last 22 St Leger Winners Won Their Last Race
Following on from that last St Leger 2024 stat, we can take this a bit further with 13 of the last 22 successful horses also winning last time out.
Again, many Doncaster runners will be fine here – including Aidan O’Brien’s other runners – Jan Brueghel and Grosvenor Square.
However, this is the first St Leger trend that market leader Illinois falls down on – having raced second last time out.
In fact, Illinois has only won once this season, which came in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot in June and despite having an overall consistent profile has been placed (5 times) more than winning (twice) from his seven career outings.
St Leger Fillies Have A Poor Record
The Ralph Beckett team supplemented their useful middle-distance runner You Got To Me for ÂŁ50k in the week and with the fourth horse last season getting ÂŁ39k, then a top three finish for this filly will see them make a profit.
She’s been impressive in winning the Irish Oaks (watch below) in July and was a fine second in the Yorkshire Oaks since.
The longer trip, that she’ll tackle for the first time, look sure to suit too – but the niggle is that the St Leger has only seen two winning fillies since 1992 – User Friendly that year and Simple Verse in 2015.
St Leger Favourites Have Won 41% Of The Last 22 Renewals
Illinois gets back on track in this next Doncaster stat though – with the favourites having a top record in the St Leger in recent times.
Horse racing punters have enjoyed nine winning market leaders since 2002 – including five jollies winning in the last 11 renewals.
Respect Aidan O’Brien, Godolphin and John Gosden
We’ve already mentioned the top record in the St Leger of trainer Aidan O’Brien with seven past wins – but he’s still got some way to go to get near the record haul of handler John Scott, who fired in 16 wins in the 1800’s.
The first O’Brien St Leger win came in 2001 Milan, while the most recent was only last year in 2023 with Continuous.
As well as the top O’Brien record, we’ve also seen trainer John Gosden do well – with four successes since 2007 – while the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin have seven wins in total.
This year, however, Gosden and Godolphin, don’t have entries in the St Leger, but – as we know – Aidan O’Brien does and is mob-handed.
- Aidan O’Brien – Illinois, Jan Brueghel, Grosvenor Square and Los Angeles
Note: Final St Leger entries are out on Thursday 12th September
What Are The Best St Leger Trials?
With 12 of the last 22 St Leger winners having raced in the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood or the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York – these two race are always worth looking back on.
Illinois was runner-up in the Great Voltigeur, while his stablemate Jan Brueghel landed the Gordon Stakes on 1st August (watch below).
St Leger 2024 Runners
- Illinois (AP O’Brien)
- Jan Brueghel (AP O’Brien)
- Grosvenor Square (AP O’Brien)
- You Got To Me (Ralph Beckett)
- Sunway (David Menuisier)
- Deira Mile (Owen Burrows)
- Wild Waves (Andrew Balding)
Recent St Leger Winners
- 2023 - Continuous (3/1)
- 2022 – Eldar Eldarov (9/2)
- 2021 – Hurricane Lane (8/11 fav)
- 2020 – Galileo Chrome (4/1)
- 2019 – Logician (5/6 fav)
- 2018 - Kew Gardens (3/1)
- 2017 - Capri (3/1 fav)
- 2016 – Harbour Law (22/1)
- 2015 – Simple Verse (8/1)
- 2014 – Kingston Hill (9/4 fav)