Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Thursday Picks – October 31st

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.

Andrew heads to the meetings at Newcastle (jumps) and Bath (Flat) for his two stats-based selections on Thursday, October 31st…

NEWCASTLE 1.45

SKYKACK HIJACK (system – LTO hurdler winner, quick return in handicap company, speed adjusted)

Since the beginning of 2012, backing last-time out hurdle winners who were returned to the track within seven days to contest a handicap hurdle (Class 2 or lower) would have found 378 winners from 936 bets (40.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £44.82 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had one of the two highest last-time out speed ratings (according to Proform’s figures) were 227 from 486 (46.7%) for a profit of £75.21 (expected winners = 189.43, A/E = 1.20). SKYJACK HIJACK arrives here on a four-timer and could again prove hard to beat.

BATH 2.58

TAP DANCER (system – Marcus Tregoning, nurseries)

This century, Marcus Tregoning has a 16 from 79 record with his runners in nurseries (20.3% strike-rate) and backing them all would have returned a profit of £23.21 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.43, A/E = 1.53). Since the beginning of all year his qualifiers have recorded form figures of 113111 (5-6) and recent wide-margin 1m2f course winner TAP DANCER is taken to make a winning handicap debut, despite cutting back in trip to 1m.

	Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.	Claim Offer
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets	T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.	Claim Offer

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Related

• There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsCasting
• Check out more horse racing news on the site with regular updates
• See Andy Newton’s ‘Lay Of The Day’ daily horse racing feature