Betting Tips

Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Saturday Picks – September 14th

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andrewmount
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andrewmount Horse Racing Expert

Andrew Mount is a leading racing adviser, broadcaster and journalist with over 20 years experience in the industry. He is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing & Football Outlook, the Racing Post Weekender and the GG.co.uk website and has written more than 20 horses-to-follow books. Andrew specialises in a systems-based statistical approach to betting sites and is an expert pundit on William Hill radio and Racing Post TV.

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Published14 Sep 2024

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Andrew Mount

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.

Andrew heads to Lingfield, Chester, Doncaster and Leopardstown for his four stats-based picks on Saturday, September 14th…

LINGFIELD 2.35

MCLOVEN (system – Harry Angel, AW, no headgear)

Progeny of the sire Harry Angel have a 51 from 244 record (20.9% strike-rate) when running on the all-weather without headgear and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £77.92 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 38.97, A/E = 1.31). MCLOVEN is perhaps drawn a little wider than ideal in this handicap but this speedy front-runner should still be able to lead up. He’s two from three on synthetics (just one from 11 on turf), including two from two over today’s distance.

 

DONCASTER 4.15

MR KING (system – Jamie Spencer, Doncaster, finished fourth or worse last time out)

Jamie Spencer rides Doncaster well, a track that often favours runners who come from off the pace. MR KING caught the eye from a poor track position at York last month, finishing a 50-1 seventh of 18 to Thunder Run in the Clipper Handicap, a race that is already working out well. The possible lack of early pace in this 1m2f contest tempers confidence but the step back up to 1m2f will suit and he’s open to improvement on just his second start for Iain Jardine.

 

LEOPARDSTOWN 5.10

CERULEAN BAY (system – New Bay handicappers, top three finish last time out)

Progeny of the sire New Bay tend to hold their form well and the handicappers who finished in the top three om their latest start have a 104 from 407 record (25.6%) for a profit of £118.03 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 76.67, A/E =1.36). CERULEAN BAY has improved since cut back to 7f, completing a hat-trick at Thirsk last time and his stall 15 draw will be an asset in the Sovereign Path Handicap on recent evidence.

 

CHESTER 5.15

CLANSMAN (system – soft ground preference)

CLANSMAN relishes the mud, recording form figures on actual soft or heavy going (based on race times, not the official going verdict) of 13113113 (5-8), improving to 1111 (4-4) on heavy ground only. Conditions look ideal at Chester today and he can reward each-way support.

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