Horse Racing

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Trends Highlight A Big Draw Stat You Can’t Ignore

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published2 hours ago on October 01, 2024

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Use our Prix de l’Arc Triomphe trends ahead of Sunday’s big Longchamp race to help put history on your side and find the best profiles based on past winners.

Did you know? 73% of the last 22 Arc winners won their last race and also returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting.

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Trends 2024: Key Stats For Longchamp On Sunday

We’ve listed here our key Prix de l’Arc Triomphe trends to apply to the 2024 running on Sunday 6th October 2024.

You can then use these horse racing stats to whittle down the final Arc runners – which will hopefully help point you in the direction of the big Longchamp winner this weekend.

21/22 – Won a Group 1 race
19/22 – Won over 1m4f
17/22 – Had 4 or more runs that season
17/22 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
16/22 – Had won at least 5 times before
16/22 – Won last time out
16/22 – 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
14/22 – Run at Longchamp
13/22 – Favourites placed
12/22 – Won at Longchamp previously
12/22 – Aged 3 years-old
11/22 – Won by a French-based yard
9/22 – Raced at Longchamp last time out
9/22 – Female winners
7/22 – Favourites
6/22 – Won by a UK-based yard
3/22 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 9)
3/22 – Trained by Andre Fabre (won the race 8 times in all)
2/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2016, 2007)
2/22- Trained by J-C Rouget (2020 & 2023)
19 of the last 30 Arc winners were aged 3 years-old
The last Prix Niel winner to follow up in the Arc was Rail Link in 2006
3 of the last 15 Epsom Derby winners that season have won
Jockey Cristian Demuro has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 9 Arcs
Since 1976 we’ve seen just 4 winners aged 5 or older

When Is The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2024?

📅Date: Sunday 6th October 2024
⌚Time: 3:20pm
🏇Racecourse: Longchamp
💰Winning Purse: £2,484,348
📺 TV: ITV / Sky Racing

AGE: Just Four Arc Winners Aged 5+ Since 1976

The first of our Prix de l’Arc Triomphe trends to have on your side is the age as the 3 and 4 year-olds have by far the best record in recent times – making up 86% of the last 22 winners.

In contrast there have only been three 5 year-olds winners during this period and only four since 1976.

This year there are no horses aged 6+, but the last older Arc winner was the 7 year-old Motrico way back in 1932.

In short, the 3 and 4 year-olds have by far the best records combined, while the 3 year-olds have the better stats – maybe this is because of the 6lb age allowance they get off the older horses?

While a 3 year-old filly in the race will also get a further 4lbs off.

Arc Age and Weights

Age 3: 8st 13lbs
Age 3 (Filly): 8st 9lbs
Age 4: 9st 5lbs
Age 4 (Filly): 9st 3lbs
Age 5: 9st 5lbs
Age 5 (Filly): 9st 3lbs

Age Of Arc Winners In Last 22 Runnings

Age 3: 12 Winners (54%)
Age 4: 7 Winners (32%)
Age 5: 3 Winners (14%)

DRAW: 77% Of The Last 22 Winners Came From Stall 8 or Lower

Despite being run over a trip of 1m4f, the draw in the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe has played a massive part too.

Yes, in 2021, 2016 and 2015 we saw winners from stalls 12 (2) and 14 (1), but with 17 of the last 22 winners (77%) hailing from berths 8 or lower this is too big a trend to ignore.

Plus, we can probably ignore the 2016 running when Found won from stall 12 as the race was run at Chantilly that year and also in 2017.

Being drawn lower has clearly been a plus and this was again backed up in the last two years with Ace Impact winning from stall 8 and Alpinista in 6.

Basically, five of the last six Arc winners have come between stalls 2-8 (inc).

Then, if you want to whittle down the runners a bit more – then 15 of the last 22 winners came from stalls 6 or lower (68%), but, or course, this would have missed last year’s winner Ace Impact in stall 8.

You could argue the draw has been one of the best Prix de l’Arc Triomphe trends in recent times.

Last Six Arc Winners and Their Draw

2023: Ace Impact – 8
2022: Alpinista – 6
2021: Torquator Tasso -12
2020: Sottsass – 4
2019: Waldgeist – 3
2018: Enable – 6

RUNS: Look For Horses With 4+ Runs That Season

Next up is to look for horses that have had at least four runs that season – as this trend has paid off in 17 of the last 22 renewals – including again in 2023 with Ace Impact having raced exactly four times between April and October.

Last Six Arc Winners and How Many Runs That Season

2023: Ace Impact – 4
2022: Alpinista – 2
2021: Torquator Tasso – 4
2020: Sottsass – 4
2019: Waldgeist – 4
2018: Enable – 1

FORM: At Least 5 Wins and A Victory Last Time Out A Plus

Having proven winning experience at least five times is another big stat to look for – with 16 of the last 22 winners having been victorious 5+ times in the past.

This was again, backed up 12 months ago with Ace Impact winning exactly five times before taking the Arc.

Last Six Arc Winners and How Many Previous Wins

2023: Ace Impact – 5
2022: Alpinista – 9
2021: Torquator Tasso – 4
2020: Sottsass – 5
2019: Waldgeist – 8
2018: Enable – 8

FAVOURITES: Market Leaders Have A Decent Recent Arc Record

Despite being a very competitive race, the Arc has not been too bad a hunting ground for the favourite.

Since 2002 we’ve seen seven Arc favourites win (32%) and 13 of those (59%) have been placed too.

We’ve also had a winning market leader in the last two runnings with Ace Impact and Alpinista going in and four in the last seven renewals (57%).

This year’s Arc favourite could be Sosie, who is topping the market at the moment – but only just so the favourite might change come Sunday.

Recent Winning Arc Favourites

2023: Ace Impact (19/10 fav)
2022: Alpinista (33/10 fav)
2018: Enable (Evs fav)
2017: Enable (10/11 Fav)

FILLIES: Respect The Females With a 41% Return In The Last 22 Runnings

In the Arc any filly will get a weight allowance – if they are aged 3, they will carry just 8st 9lbs and if aged 4 will have 9st 2lbs – which is less that a 3 year-old colt at 8st 13lbs or 4 year-old colt at 9st 5lbs.

This might be one of the reasons the fillies have a fine recent in the Arc – winning 9 of the last 22, which equates to a 41% return.

Backed up most recently in 2022 (Alpinista), 2018 and 2017 with Enable.

The fillies in the 2024 Arc are – Bluestocking, Aventure, Mqse De Sevigne, Survie, Sparkling Plenty and Opera Singer.

STABLES: André Fabre Is The Winning-Most Arc Trainer

No trainer has won the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe more times than André Fabre – with eight past successes.

The French handler had his first winner in the race in 1987 with Trempolino and his most recent in 2019 when Waldgeist foiled the Enable three-time Arc bid (watch below).

Fabre has three entered at this stage – Sosie, Sevenna’s Knight and Mqse De Sevigne – with the first-named his most fancied based on the best betting sites in the UK.

Of the other trainers Aidan O’Brien will be popular too with a strong hand that includes his Irish Derby winner Los Angeles and 2023 St Leger hero Continuous.

O’Brien has two past wins in the race – his first in 2007 with Dylan Thomas and more recently in 2016 with Found.

André Fabre Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Winners

Trempolino (1987)
Subotica (1992)
Carnegie (1994)
Peintre Celebre (1997)
Sagamix (1998)
Hurricane Run (2005)
Rail Link (2006)
Waldgeist (2019)

Is The Prix Niel A Good Arc Trial?

The current Prix de l’Arc Triomphe favourite is Sosie, who was last seen winning the Prix Niel at Longchamp on 15th September (watch below).

This race is billed as a decent Arc Trial race – however, is it?

The worry would be that the last horse to win both the Prix Niel and the Arc was Rail Link in 2006 – meaning a 17 year run.

Before Rail Link, it was Hurricane Run in 2005 who was the last double Niel/Arc winner.

Sosie is currently the shortest-priced horse with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK, but a lot can change between now and the start of the race.

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Winners (Past 10 Years)

2023: Ace Impact (19/10 fav)
2022: Alpinista (33/10 fav)
2021: Torquator Tasso (72/1)
2020: Sottsass (73/10)
2019: Waldgeist (131/10)
2018: Enable (Evs fav)
2017: Enable (10/11 Fav)
2016: Found (6/1)
2015: Golden Horn (9/2)
2014: Treve (11/1)