The New Manager Bounce: Debunking a Myth

An uncharacteristically low tally of managerial sackings last season felt like a shift in psyche from Premier League clubs, who are all looking to cultivate long-term stability. Sportscasting examines what effect, if any, a ‘new manager bounce’ can have.

Just three managers departed mid-season; this was down from 14 sackings in 2022/23, which set a new record in the process.

Last season’s refreshing approach to the managerial merry-go-round was born out of a discernible lack of elite coaches available on the market, but hopes of a similarly quiet season have been dashed already.

Erik ten Hag’s dismissal after four defeats in nine games this term felt inevitable, even after lifting a second domestic trophy in as many years.

This early-season layoff was – at first – met with jubilation from rival fans who proceeded to poke fun at Manchester United’s perpetual frailty. 

However, as the dust settles on a hectic week at Old Trafford, there is the old-age feeling of discomfort from neutrals who are fearing the implications of a ‘new manager bounce.’ 

That is, a phenomenon whereby a team’s performance may suddenly improve with the arrival of fresh ideas, fresh identity and a renewed sense of purpose. 

Although Sporting Lisbon’s Ruben Amorim looks set to be named Ten Hag’s permanent successor, interim manager Ruud van Nistelrooy prepares for an almighty test in his first Premier League match in the hot seat.

With that in mind, Sportscasting launches a full scale review of the ‘new manager bounce’ phenomenon to see whether it has substance, or it’s somewhat of a misnomer.

🚨 Ruud van Nistelrooy: “I’m motivated to stay at Man United. I will go back to my assistant contract that I have here for this season and next”.

“I came as an assistant to help the club forward and I’m still motivated to do so in any capacity”. pic.twitter.com/yj1mFAqoR8

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) October 31, 2024

The ‘New Manager Bounce’ Meaning

Axing managers is – by and large – the result of a simply untenable situation. 

Unsettled dressing rooms are usually reflected by turbulent performances on the pitch; by that point, the only course of action left is to bring about a change of personnel in the dugout.

History has often shown that to be a necessary decision, with incoming managers able to arrive as a transformative figure – a God-like divine presence sent from above to save a season.

Whether this phenomenon is down to their managerial acumen, or simply the departure of a manager who had ‘lost the dressing room’ is a question that is often case-specific.

Either way, we have put the past three Premier League campaigns under the microscope to see just how common the ‘new manager bounce’ really is.

Is the ‘New Manager Bounce’ a Myth?

Across the last three Premier League seasons, there have been a total of 25 managerial arrivals.

It must be noted that our research only took into account managers who had taken charge of five games or more, so caretaker and interim figures who stepped in for a handful of games have been excluded.

It also must be said that the minimum number of games in charge across the sample was six – for example the likes of Ryan Mason only took the reins at Tottenham for their final six games in 2022/23.

Meanwhile those who took over earlier in the season have been limited to a maximum of their first 10 games.

Overall Record For Mid-Season Managerial Appointments (2021-2023)

• 239 Total Games
• WINS – 77 
• DRAWS – 54 
• LOSSES – 108
• 32.21% win rate
• 45.18% loss rate

From this set of results, it is clear to see that the arrival of a new manager doesn’t necessarily translate to improvement.

A 32.21% win rate is certainly not to be sniffed at. However, the data is slightly muddied by the fact – more often than not – the teams who have been forced into a decision over their manager are struggling regardless, and as such a new man in the dugout can do little to change that fact.

Of the managers measured, the most transformative figures in terms of points won were Unai Emery at Aston Villa (16 points in 2022/23), Ralf Rangnick at Manchester United (19 points in 2021/22) and Antonio Conte (21 points in 2021/22).

These were all teams who had the necessary human capital and spending power to compete at a high level, they just needed a managerial change to kickstart a run of form.

At the other end of the spectrum, the likes of Nathan Jones at Southampton (three points in 2022/23) and Dean Smith at Leicester (eight points in 2021/22) were doomed to fail with depleted squads and confidence at rock-bottom.

Mid-Season Appointments With the Best Records After 10 Games (2021-23)

New Managers Have Won More Often Than Not in Their Opening Game

While managers may not have maintained momentum for their first 10 games in charge, it is interesting to note that dugout debuts typically result in a win.

Of the 25 managers measured across the last three seasons, 12 of them won their first game.

A further seven managed to walk away with a point, while the remaining six fell to defeat. When isolating opening results of a managerial reign, a ‘bounce’ in form has certainly been prevalent in recent years.

A good omen for Manchester United fans against Chelsea perhaps?