Horse Racing

Ebor Handicap Trends 2024: Key Stats You Can’t Ignore Ahead Of Saturday’s Big York Race

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published22 Aug 2024

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Apply our key Ebor Handicap trends to the final field of 22 runners – putting history on your side by finding the best horse profiles based on past winners of the race.

There are many stats that have built up over the last 22 runnings of the Ebor Handicap, which will highlight things like the best ages, key weight cut-off points, the trainers with the best records, favourites stats and, despite being run over 1m6f, even the draw has played its part in finding the winner.

Ebor Handicap Trends and Stats To Help Find The 2024 York Winner

See below the best Ebor Handicap trends that can be used to help whittle down the runners and help find the winner of the most valuable handicap flat horse racing contest in the UK.

21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
18/22 – Carried 9-5 or less in weight
18/22 – Winners from a double-figure stall
18/22 – Won over at least 1m4f
15/22 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/22 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/22 – Favourites unplaced
12/22 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/22 – Raced at York before
7/22 – Won their last race
7/22 – Irish-trained winners (7 of the last 15)
6/22 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/22 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/22 – Raced at Galway last time out
2/22 – Winning favourites
2/22- Trained by Willie Mullins (2 of the last 15)
Just two winning favourites since 1999
Since 1980 only one winner aged 7 or older
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old

When Is The Ebor Handicap Stakes?

Ebor Handicap Favourites Have A Poor Record

With just days till the Ebor Handicap is run on Saturday 24th August a lot can still change in the betting.

However, at this stage the Aidan O’Brien trained Queenstown is propping up the market as favourite at the best UK horse racing betting sites – with Epic Poet, Hipop De Loire and Fairbanks all just in behind.

But whichever horse does go off as the favourite doesn’t have a great Ebor trend on its side.

Only two market leaders have won the race since 1999, with the most recent Fujaira Prince back in 2020 and before that Purple Moon in 2007.

Note: Jockey Ryan Moore WON’T be riding at York on Saturday – instead he’ll head to the Curragh for four rides that include Bedtime Story.

James Doyle will step in to ride Queenstown in the Ebor as the Wathnan Racing rider looks for his first success in this big York handicap.

Look For Horses With 9st 5lbs Or Less In Weight

Being a handicap race, then weight carried is worth noting too.

This is supported with 18 of the last 22 winners (82%) having 9st 5lbs or less on their backs.

Yes, there is a small word of caution here as 3 of the last 4 winners did defy this stat – winning with 9st 7lbs or more – to suggest a better class of horses are being targeted at the prize.

However, overall, there still seems to be a case for making 9st 5lbs the cut-off here.

With this in mind, this year’s big-weighted horses are Relentless Voyager, Queenstown, Wise Eagle, Naqeeb, Crystal Delight, Yashin, Hipop De Loire and Magical Zoe – who all have 9st 6lbs or more.

Avoid Ebor Horses Aged 7 Or Older

Next up is the age and with a massive 95% of the last 22 Ebor winners aged 6 or younger, then it’s best to avoid any older statemen in the race.

Since 1980, only Litigant, who was aged 7, has defied this Ebor Handicap trend.

Looking at this year’s Ebor runners, this doesn’t bode well for Hipop De Loire (7), My Mate Mozzie (8), Wise Eagle (7), Kihavah (7), Not So Sleepy (12) and Alfred Boucher (8).

Ebor Trends Suggest Horses Aged 4 & 5 Have The Best Chance

Sticking with the age stat, it’s the 4 and 5 year-olds who have the best records in recent times – winning 15 of the last 22 (68%).

This trend has been backed up in all of the last three renewals. But it’s also worth noting all the winners since 2016 came in aged between 4-6 years-old.

The horses that fit the bill here are Queenstown, Epic Poet, Fairbanks, Magical Zoe, Naqeeb, Burdett Road, Relentless Voyager, Ziggy, Onesmoothoperator, Chillingham, Crystal Delight, Sea King, Iron Lion, Yashin, Forza Orta and Oneforthegutter.

Meaning of the 22 runners, there are now 16 have a positive here.

Respect Horses Drawn In A Double-Figure Stall

With the Ebor Handicap being run over 1m6f, then many feel the draw doesn’t really play a part – with the horses having plenty of time to get into the race.

However, the stats tell us a different story with a massive 18 of the last 22 winners (82%) hailing from a double-figure berth.

Yes, with 22 runners there is going to be slightly more horses naturally running from stalls 10+, but this is still a big percentage that can’t be ignored. Backed up with the last four winners coming from stalls 12, 14, 20 and 24.

This year’s horses drawn between 1-9 to avoid are – Magical Zoe, Hipop De Loire, Burdett Road, Ziggy, Onesmoothoperator, Alfred Boucher, Forza Orta, Kihavah and Sea King.

Look Out For Recent Runs at Galway, Goodwood and Ascot

Next up it to take a quick look back at recent runs – but, don’t worry, we’ll do this for you.

This because 15 of the last 22 winners raced at Ascot, Galway or Goodwood in their most recent runs.

Those that fit the bill here are – Hipop De Loire, Fairbanks, Burdett Road, My Mate Mozzie, Relentless Voyager and Alfred Boucher,

Trainer Aidan O’Brien Has Won The Ebor Handicap Just Once

The Aidan O’Brien team have had a top week at York already – climaxing with the top Juddmonte International win by City Of Troy on Wednesday.

He’ll be looking to cap off the festival with a win in the Ebor with Queenstown, who is heading the betting with most firms.

However, the Ebor is a race Aidan O’Brien has only won the once – and that came way back in 2001 with a horse called Mediterranean (watch below).

The Irish Have A Top Ebor Record In Recent Years

Despite top Irish handler Aidan O’Brien having just one Ebor to his name, this fellow countryman has still been flying the flag with a top record in this York race.

The prize has gone back across the Irish Sea seven times in the last 15 years, including 12 months ago when Willie Mullins was winning the race for a second time since 2009.

This year’s Irish-trained horses are Queenstown (O’Brien), Hipop De Loire (Mullins), Magical Zoe (De Bromhead), My Mate Mozzie (Cromwell) and Yashin (Harrington).

Ebor Handicap Trends Horses That Fit The Most Stats

EPIC POET – This David O’Meara-trained 5 year-old was last seen running a fine fifth in the John Smith’s Cup here at York in the middle of July (watch below).

He’s up 3lbs for the effort but having done his best work at the finish that day, then you feel this step up in trip will be right up his street.

The pick also gets in with a nice racing weight of 9st 4lbs and draw 16 looks another positive with the experienced Danny Tudhope in the plate.

FAIRBANKS – Trainer Andrew Balding is yet to win the Ebor Handicap, but he’s got a strong hand this year with the top-weight Relentless Voyager, who is worth a small saver too despite having a lot of weight, and recent Goodwood second Fairbanks.

The last-named was just touched off by a neck that day in the Summer Handicap at Goodwood and gets in here off the same mark (100) – watch below).

We know he says this 1m6f trip well, with that last race over that distance – plus he won over this yardage at Newmarket in July.

This 4 year-old also have a lovely racing weight in 9st 4lbs, has a nice draw in 15 and David Probert is another bonus in the saddle.

Recent Ebor Handicap Winners

2023 – Absurde (7/1)
2022 – Trawlerman (9/1)
2021 – Sonnyboyliston (10/1)
2020 – Fujaira Prince (11/2 fav)
2019 – Mustajeer (16/1)
2018 – Muntahaa (11/1)
2017 – Nakeeta (12/1)
2016 – Heartbreak City (15/2)
2015 – Litigant (33/1)
2014 – Mutual Regard (20/1)