Horse Racing

Ayr Gold Cup Trends 2024: Favourites Record, Best Draw and Top Trainers

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published16 Sep 2024

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Use our key Ayr Cup trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of Saturday big sprint handicap at the Scottish track – including that the race has only produced five winning favourites since 1980.

Ayr Gold Cup Trends Say Favourites Have a Poor Record Since 1980 (but have done better in the last 9 years)

Since 1980 the Ayr Gold Cup has produced just five winning favourites – which is just an 11% return over this period.

Therefore, once we know the market leader for Saturday’s big race, the trends suggest horse racing fans should go carefully with those at the head of the market.

However, there is some hope for favourite backers as four of these Ayr Gold Cup favourites have come since 2015 – meaning the jolly has a much better 44% strike-rate over this 9 year spell.

At this stage the Archie Watson runner Albasheer is one of those vying for the favourites berth with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK.

The Ayr Gold Cup has also seen 52% of favourites unplaced in the last 23 runnings.

The Last Horse To Win Back-to-Back Ayr Gold Cups Was Heronslea In 1930 and 1931

12 months ago in 2023, the Julie Camacho-trained Significantly won the Ayr Gold Cup in decent fashion (watch below) and there is a chance the current champ will be back for more.

The now 6 year-old is entered again at this stage but is rated 9lbs higher than last year.

There is also a huge Ayr Gold Cup trend for Significantly to overcome – the last horse to win the race in back-to-back years was a runner called Heronslea in 1930 and 1931.

More recently, the Dandy Nicholls runner Funfair Wane took the prize in 2002 and 2004 – just not consecutive seasons.

Trainer Kevin Ryan Has A Top Ayr Gold Cup Record

A trainer called Tom Dawson won the Ayr Gold Cup 15 times in the 1800’s and since then not many have come close to challenging that big haul.

However, if you are looking for a handler that does like to target this race – you should end your search with Kevin Ryan.

The North Yorkshire-based trainer has won the Ayr Gold Cup five times since 2007, so anything he runs should be respected. Including four times since 2011.

Other trianers to note are Karl Burke (2 wins), Richard Fahey (2 wins), Andrew Balding (2 wins) and David O’Meara (2 wins).

Make 9st 1lb Your Ayr Gold Cup Trends Weight Cut-Off

Being a handicap sprint run over 6f, then weight carried is key too.

With that in mind, the Ayr Gold Cup trends point us towards 9st 1lbs being your weight cut-off point – with 16 of the last 23 winning with 9st 1lb or more – (70%).

The 2023 winner carried carried on this trend with 9st-2lbs and three of the last four have won with 9st-2lbs or more.

Ayr Gold Cup Trends and Stats 2024

23/23 – Run within the last 8 weeks
20/23 – Run within the last 4 weeks
20/23 – 3 or more wins to their name
18/23 – Won over 6f before
18/23 – Didn’t win their last race
16/23 – Carried 9-1 or more
16/23 – Came from a double-figure stall
15/23 – Rated 90-101
14/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/23 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/23 – Raced at Doncaster (4), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
12/23 – Raced at Ayr before
12/23 – 7 or more runs that season
12/23 – Favourites unplaced
5/23 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
4/23 – Winning favourites (or joint) (5 winning favs since 1980)
2/23 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey (2 of the last 18)
2/23 – Won by trainer Andrew Balding (2 of the last 11)
2/23 – Won by trainer David O’Meara (2 of the last 10)
0/23 – Filly or mare winners
Trainer Karl Burke has won the race twice (1994 & 1998)
The last 7 winners were drawn 12+
14 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 19 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older
Since 1980 just 2 winners aged 7 or older
16 of the last 19 winners carried 9-0 or more in weight
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronslea in 1930/31
Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat

Ayr Gold Cup 2024 Time and Date

📅Date: Saturday 21st September 2024
⌚Time: 3:35pm
🏇Racecourse: Ayr (6f)
💰Winning Purse: £92,772
📺 TV: ITV and Racing TV

Look Out For Horses Draw In A Double-Figure Stall

With a maximum of 25 Ayr Gold Cup runners, then naturally the race will have more horses drawn in double figures – 16 as opposed to nine.

But it’s still worth noting that those drawn high have won 16 of the last 23 runnings (70%), while 14 of the last 15 came from stalls 8 or higher (93%), which suggests we can at least rule out those drawn 1-7.

Last year’s Ayr Gold Cup winner, Significantly was drawn in 14, with the winners since 2018 coming from stalls 17, 21, 24, 13, 25, 12 and 14.

While ALL of the last seven winners were drawn 12+.

Horses Aged 4 or 5 Have The Best Recent Record

Next up is the age of horse to look for, with those aged either 4 or 5 having the best record in recent years.

Significantly was aged 5 in 2023 and since 2016 there have been six winners aged either 4 or 5.

While in the last 23 runnings this is further backed up with 61% of the winners (14) again aged 4 or 5.

In fact, since 1980, there has only two winners aged 7 or older.

Look Out For A Top Four Finish Last Time Out

The final of our main Ayr Gold Cup trends to look out for are horses that recorded a ‘top 4’ finish last time out.

This is backed up with 61% of the last 23 runners finishing fourth or better in their last race before winning the Ayr Gold Cup.

So, another Ayr Gold Cup trend that will allow punters to knock out a fair few once the final decs are out.

Ayr Gold Cup Runners 2024: The Main Players

There will be a maximum of 25 Ayr Gold Cup runners heading to post for the 2024 renewal – with the final entries out on Thursday 19th September.

Here are just some of the likely Ayr Gold Cup runners.

Albasheer
American Affair
Lethal Levi
Ramazan
Rohaan
Wiltshire
Billyjoh
Mostabshir
Pilgrim
Sergeant Wilko

Note: Final declarations were announced on Thursday 5th September

Ayr Gold Cup Recent Winners (last 10 years)

2023 – Significantly (8/1 jfav)
2022 – Summerghand (12/1)
2021 – Bielsa (15/2)
2020 – Nahaarr (7/2 fav)
2019 – Angel Alexander (28/1)
2018 – Baron Bolt (28/1) & Son Of A Rest (5/1 fav) (dead-heat)
2017 – Donjuan Triumphant (13/2)
2016 – Brando (11/1)
2015 – Don’t Touch (6/1 fav)
2014 – Louis The Pious (10/1)