Manchester City Have Already Won The 2024/25 Premier League – Here Is Why

Although the Premier League is only five games in, research suggests that Manchester City are already on for their fifth league title in a row.

Our exclusive research has shown that several statistics and trends point to Pep Guardiola’s side winning the Premier League title for the fifth consecutive season. Here is why the 2024/25 Premier League campaign could be over before it’s even started, with the coveted trophy heading to the Etihad for a ninth time in 14 seasons.

• Stats show Manchester City are on course to win the Premier League again
• City have won league each time they have gained 13 points from opening five games
• Arsenal playing catch-up after dropping four points from their opening fixtures
• All stats point to a fifth successive Premier League title for Pep Guardiola

Manchester City Have Won Have 100% Record Of Winning The Premier League When Sitting On 13 Points From Five Games

Although there have just been five game weeks in the 2024/25 Premier League campaign so far, it looks as if Manchester City could have the title wrapped up already.

Despite there being 33 games to go in the league campaign with many twists and turns expected, one statistic points to Pep Guardiola’s side winning their fifth successive Premier League title this season.

The sky blues from Manchester have eight Premier League titles to their name of course. Their first came in the 2011/12 season, the infamous Sergio Aguero goal against QPR, with seven more coming in the next 12 years. Now, one key stat points to City winning their ninth title and fifth successive triumph in England’s top flight.

In their history, Manchester City have begun a Premier League campaign with 13 points from five games on four occasions prior to this season. They have had maximum points on a few occasions as well, and have of course had worse starts too, suffering a defeat or two in their opening five Premier League matches.

However, every single time Manchester City have sat on 13 points from their opening five Premier League games, they have gone on to become champions. A 100% record when they have won four and drawn one of their opening five league games is quite an impressive record.

In the 2011/12 Premier League season, Roberto Mancini’s City had 13 points from five league games and went on to win their first ever Premier League title. They repeated that feat in both the 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons – going on to lift the title in both. The fourth time they won four and drew one of their opening five league games was in the 2022/23 season, when they also went on to win the title.

Now, City find themselves in the exact same situation in the current 2024/25 Premier League campaign. They have 13 points from their opening five league games, suggesting they are on for their ninth Premier League title and fifth in a row. Yes, it is early days of course, but this one statistic is bulletproof for City.

When Manchester City have 13 points from five games, they win the title. As simple as that.

Only Two Teams Have Won The Premier League After Losing Their Opening Game

Only two teams in the history of the Premier League have gone on to become champions after losing their first game of the season. Manchester City did it in 2021/22 when they lost 1-0 to Tottenham on the opening day, with Manchester United doing it on three different occasions.

In 2012/13 United lost 1-0 to Everton but went on to win the league. In 1995/96 United got beaten 3-1 by Aston Villa on the opening day but won the title. The Red Devils also won the Premier League despite losing their first game back in the 1992/93 season, the inaugural season of the Premier League, losing 201 to Sheffield United that time.

This shows that although it isn’t impossible, it is highly unlikely that a team goes on to win the Premier League after losing their first match. Take Chelsea this season for example. Blues fans will have had title aspirations heading into the season, but lost 2-0 on the opening day to Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City. It would take something special for them to go on to win the league now, despite having another 35 games to go.

So although it is just five games, research shows just how important it is to get off to a fast start in the Premier League. It’s imperative to hit the ground running, rather than starting off slow and playing your way into it. A fast start is just as important as a strong finish, as the research shows.

Three Teams In Last 15 Years Would Have Another Premier League Title Had They Have Won Opening Three Matches

Over the last 15 year period, Manchester City have won eight Premier League titles, Chelsea have won three, Manchester United have won two and both Liverpool and Leicester City have won one each. However, here at SportsCasting we discovered that three different teams would have won the league if they had won each of their first three games.

The most recent occurrence of this was in fact last season, where Arsenal missed out on the Premier League title by just two points. Mikel Arteta’s side finished just two points behind City, with both having the same +62 goal difference. However, the Gunners actually drew 2-2 with Fulham in their third game of the season.

Add this all up and had Arsenal won that match 3-2 instead of drawing 2-2, they would be the reigning Premier League champions right now. They would have finished alongside City on 91 points had they won all of their opening three fixtures, winning the league title on goal difference by one goal in the process. Although it is early days and the league most definitely isn’t decided after three games, statistics like this show just how important each and every point, and even every goal is in the Premier League.

The same happened in the 2021/22 season with Man City and runners-up Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp’s side drew their third game of the season 1-1 with Chelsea, eventually going on to miss out on the Premier League title by just one point to City in the end. Had they beaten Chelsea, Liverpool would have another Premier League title to their name.

Manchester United is another club that has happened to in the past 15 years. Back in the 2009/10 season when Sir Alex Ferguson was still in charge of the Red Devils, United got beat 1-0 by Burnley in their second game of the season. Come the end of the campaign after 38 games, United finished one point behind Chelsea, meaning that a win against Burnley on the second day of the season would have secured yet another Premier League title under Ferguson.

Just Manchester United Have Went On To Win Title Despite Being Winless After Three Premier League Games

Looking at stats in even more details around the first three games of a Premier League season and you’ll find that only one team in history has gone on to win the Premier League despite being winless after three games. That team was Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United in 2007/08, where they had just two points after three games of the season.

United opened their campaign in 2007/08 with a draw against Reading, before then drawing their second game as well against AFC Bournemouth. The Red Devils were then beaten by bitter rivals Manchester City in the third game. Despite this dreadful start, the 07/08 season ended up being one to remember for all of the right reasons as United fans may recall.

After those three winless games, United won eight on the spin to sit top of the table after 11 games. Come the end of the season, they won the league with 87 points, as well as winning the coveted Champions League. United and Sir Alex certainly bucked the trend that season, winning the two biggest prizes in football, despite the dreadful start to the campaign.

This shows that a fast start isn’t the be all and end all of course, but ask any manager and you can be they’d rather have nine points from three games than just two!

Arsenal Ruled Out Of Title Race After Just Five Premier League Matches

Although we are just five games into the season, one stat that is worrying for Arsenal fans is that the last time they won the Premier League, like City this season and four times before, they sat on 13 points from five games. That was over two decades ago back in the 2003/04 season when they went unbeaten.

This season, the Gunners have already dropped four points in their first five games. Mikel Arteta’s side drew 1-1 at home to Brighton in Gameweek 3, as well as drawing with the champions in Gameweek 5 at The Etihad. This means they have 11 points from their opening five games. Although this is a strong start, it might not be good enough to catch City already at this early stage.

Although it is of course very early days, Arsenal are already playing catch-up. Hence why all of the best betting apps in the UK have City as their early favourites for the Premier League title.

Last 20 Premier League Champions – First Five Games Stats

Commentary

Lee Astley, Head of News at SportsCasting, commented on the research and Manchester City’s hopes of winning a fifth consecutive Premier League title, saying:

“It sounds ridiculous saying that the Premier League is over after just five games, but when it comes to Manchester City this could well be the case. Stats show that City have a 100% record of going on to win the title after accumulating 13 points from their opening five league games.

“The strange thing is that City haven’t won the Premier League on two occasions when they had maximum points from five games. It seems that 13 is Manchester City’s lucky number, forget unlucky.”