Horse Racing

Kerry National Trends 2024 Highlight A Standout Listowel Runner To Have On Your Radar

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published10 hours ago on September 23, 2024

Disclosure

We publish independently audited information that meets our strong editorial guidelines. Be aware we may earn a commission if you purchase anything via links on our pages.

Use our Kerry National trends and stats to help find to best profiles based on past winners of the big Listowel race in Ireland this midweek (Weds 25th Sept). Including the record of the favourites, the best trainers to follow and the key age range to look out for.

Kerry National Trends 2024: Key Stats For Listowel Race

See here our standout Kerry National trends to apply to the 2024 running on Wednesday 25th September.

22/22 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
20/22 – Rated 126+
19/22 – Aged 8 or younger
17/22 – Raced Listowel before (6 won)
16/22 – Won at least twice over fences
16/22 – Finished 4^th or better in their last race
15/22 – 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – The first three home were aged 9 or younger
11/22– Had won 5 or more times
11/22 – Placed favourites
8/22 – Won over 3m (or further) before
8/22 – Raced at Galway last time out
3/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/22 – Trained by Joseph O’Brien (2 of the last 3)
2/22 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (2 of the last 7)
1/22 – Favourites
9 of the last 10 winners carried 10-10 or less
7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-6 or less
8 of the last 9 winners have been aged 7 or 8
4 of the last 9 winners ridden by a claiming jockey

Kerry National 2024 Time and Date

📅Date: Wednesday 25th September 2024
⌚Time: 4:20pm
🏇Racecourse: Listowel (3m)
💰Winning Purse: €118,000
📺 TV: Sky Sports Racing / TG4

Kerry National Favourites Have A Poor Record

If you are thinking of just blindly backing the 2024 Listowel favourite, you might want to think twice.

The market leader in this Listowel race has won just once in the last 22 runners and none have gone in over the last 10 runnings.

However, in what looks a tight betting heat this year, you might have to wait until right near the off to find the final Kerry National favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK.

With the likes of Perceval Legallois, The Real Whacker, Zanahiyr and Flooring Porter all in contention for the jollies berth.

The Kerry National Trends Tell Us Horses Aged 7 and 8 Have The Best Records

With a massive 89% of the last nine Kerry National winners being aged either 7 or 8, then this is the standout age trend to have on your side.

Of the 18 runners, these are the ones that are NOT aged 7 or 8 – Flooring Porter, Solitary Man, Fakir d’Oudairies, Churchstonewarrior, Lucid Dreams and last year’s winner Desertmore House.

While the reserves – Falco Blitz, Real Steel and Embittered are also all double-figure ages.

In short, 19 of the last 22 winners were aged 8 or younger in this horse racing contest.

Two Repeat Kerry National Winners Since 2002

12 months ago we saw the Martin Brassil runner Desertmore House win the Kerry National by 3 3/4 lengths and he’s back for more off a 9lb higher mark.

Recent winners don’t have a bad record either, with Alfa Beat winning in 2010 and 2011, while Ponmeoath took the honours in 2008 and 2009.

We’ve also got the 2022 Kerry National winner back for more in 2024 as Busselton returns.

Trainers Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Joseph O’Brien Are Respected

If you like following the form of trainers in certain races, then ahead of the Kerry National you should certainly have Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Joseph O’Brien on your radar.

The trio have won the race seven times between them in the last 22 runnings – meaning a 32% strike-rate over this period.

This year in 2024 Mullins has Horantzau D’airy, Elliott runs Zanahiyr, Duffle Coat, The Goffer (5th last year), Chemical Energy and Hurricane George.

While Joseph O’Brien has his 2022 winner Busselton.

Note Horses That Ran At The Galway Festival That Season

With eight of the last 22 Kerry National winners having run at Galway last time out, this is another trend to look back at.

Backed up again in 2023 with Desertmore House running at the Galway Festival before taking this – he won at Kilbeggan in between these races too.

Horses Carrying 10st 10lbs or Less Have The Best Recent Record

In 2018 the classy Snow Falcon won the Kerry National with 11st 5lbs on it’s back, but generally this is handicap race that’s gone to horses carrying a lot less.

The 2023 winner Desertmore House had 10st 6lbs, while 90% of the last 10 winners had just 10st 10lbs or less and 7 of those only 10st 6lbs or less.

This year, this means quite a few have this weight stat to overcome with the 157-rated Fakir d’Oudairies heading the weights with 11st 12lbs.

Meaning only four are running with 10st 10lbs or less – Hurricane George, Horantzau, Embittered and Toss Again.

Having Raced In The Last 2 Months Has Been A Plus

Next up is to look for horses that are fit from a run within the last two months.

This is backed up with ALL of the last 22 Kerry National winners having raced within the last two months.

S, if this trend is to carry on – the likes of Fakir d’Oudairies, The Real Whacker, Desertmore House, The Goffer, Lucid Dreams and Embittered have this to overcome.

Course Experience Is Worth Looking For

Finally, having raced here at Listowel in the past is another big plus – with 17 of the last 22 winners (77%) falling into this bracket – with six past winners having already be victorious here too.

Horses that have run here before are The Real Whacker, Chemical Energy, Desertmore House, Bussleton, The Goffer, Percival Legallois, Hurricane George, Horantzau D’airy and Embittered.

Kerry National Trends Point To Horantzau D’airy Running A Big Race

Yes, this Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci horse fell last time out at Killarney, but was staying on well that day before taking that tumble at the last.

However, with the yard having a fair record in this race, plus Hortantzau D’airy also ticking a lot of the other key trends like age (7), weight (10st 10lbs), having run at Galway and racing within the last two months – then he’s got a lot going for him.

Add in top Cheltenham Gold Cup-winning jockey Paul Townend riding and previous course experience when second at Listowel over hurdles – then there’s a lot to like about this young chaser who has only finished out of the top three in four of his 16 career starts (all codes).