Betting Tips

Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Thursday Picks – September 19th

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andrewmount
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andrewmount Horse Racing Expert

Andrew Mount is a leading racing adviser, broadcaster and journalist with over 20 years experience in the industry. He is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing & Football Outlook, the Racing Post Weekender and the GG.co.uk website and has written more than 20 horses-to-follow books. Andrew specialises in a systems-based statistical approach to betting sites and is an expert pundit on William Hill radio and Racing Post TV.

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Published16 hours ago on September 19, 2024

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Andrew Mount

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.

Andrew found impressive Sandown winner COSMIC YEAR on Wednesday and has two stats-based selections on Thursday, September 19th…

YARMOUTH 2.20

VILAINE VERLAINE (system – Mark Usher, nursery debut)

Since the beginning of 2018, Mark Usher has an eight from 55 record with nursery debutants for a profit of £157.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. The majority of the winners came on the all-weather, including the well-backed (9-1 from 16-1) Token Gesture at Kempton on Monday, but it’s interesting to note that Rab Havlin, who rides VILAINE VERLAINE, is two from two on nursery debutants for Usher in recent years, with the wins at 14-1 and 5-1. Vilaine Verlaine has a similar profile to Token Gesture, catching the eye in mid-division the last twice and can be expected to take a step forward today.

 

YARMOUTH 3.50

REDORANGE (system – Mehmas 2yos, three or more previous runs)

REDORANGE improved for the step up to 6f when an 11-1 second of 12 at Salisbury last month and that form was given a boost when third-placed Shout, the 13-8 favourite, won a Doncaster nursery by three lengths off a mark of 83 last week. Juvenile progeny of his sire Mehmas tend to improve with experience and backing all those who had three of more previous runs would have found 85 winners from 552 bets (15.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £47.46 to a £1 level stake at SP. Throw in the proviso that they must have a top-four career speed figure (based on Proform’s ratings) and the score becomes 64 from 303 (21.1%) for a profit of £68.62. Redorange qualifies on this angle and the first-time tongue-tie could bring about improvement.

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T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.

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