Football
Maths expert predicts Champions League standings from league phase
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Get to know Joe Lyons betterPublished17 Sep 2024
A Polish mathematics expert has predicted what the Champions League standings will look like following the completion of the new league phase.
Piotr Klimek’s calculations gave reigning Premier League champions Manchester City the greatest chance (89%) of finishing in the top eight, which is required to secure an automatic spot in the last-16.
The Citizens are the tournament favourites and they’re forecasted to accumulate 18.38 of 24 available points from their eight league phase outings with an expected goal difference of +16.57.
The second and third spots are occupied by Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, whilst Inter Milan, Atalanta, Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona make up the remainder of the coveted eight places.
The Champions League adopts a new format for the 2024/25 season and beyond, where the teams finishing in ninth to 24th place will compete in two-legged knockout play-off ties to gain a spot in the Round of 16.
Those who finish 25th or lower will be eliminated from Europe entirely, with no path to the Europa or Conference League.
Maths expert hands Manchester City best chance of top-8 finish in league phase
See below Klimek’s full prediction for how the league phase will look for all 36 Champions League teams upon its completion by the end of January:
- Manchester City
- Real Madrid
- Bayern Munich
- Inter Milan
- Atalanta
- Arsenal
- Borussia Dortmund
- Barcelona
- Bayer Leverkusen
- AC Milan
- Stuttgart
- Liverpool
- Atletico Madrid
- RB Leipzig
- Paris Saint-Germain
- PSV
- Aston Villa
- Juventus
- Girona
- Bologna
- Sporting Lisbon
- AS Monaco
- Benfica
- Celtic
- Lille
- Feyenoord
- Stade Brestois
- Club Brugge
- RB Salzburg
- Sparta Prague
- Dinamo Zagreb
- Sturm Graz
- Young Boys
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- Red Star Belgrade
- Slovan Bratislava
🚨 Champions League projections.
✅ Top 8 will enter the Round of 16.
📈 9th-24th into Play-offs knockouts.
❌ 25th-36th eliminated from Europe.
(% per Elo, simulations by @pklimek99) pic.twitter.com/vYi2wkkgW4
— Football Rankings (@FootRankings) September 13, 2024
According to the best football betting sites, Man City are 2/1 favourites to lift the trophy in May for what would be a second time in the club’s history, whilst Real Madrid follow close behind at odds of 3/1.