Horse Racing

Breeders’ Cup Trends 2024 For Filly & Mare Turf, Mile, Classic and Turf – Does City Of Troy Fit The Stats?

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published4 hours ago on November 01, 2024

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With the big horse racing action at Del Mar reaching fever-pitch, Andy Newton’s got all the key 2024 Breeders’ Cup trends ahead of four of the big Saturday races – the Breeders’ Cup Turf, Breeders’ Cup Classic, Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and Breeders’ Cup Mile.

You can use these Breeders’ Cup trends and stats to find the best horse profiles based on past winners of these top US races.

Breeders’ Cup Trends and Stats For Saturday’s BIG FOUR Del Mar Races

Horse racing stats are not everyone’s cup of tea, but there are also many punters that love looking back at past runnings of the big races – mainly to see if there are any patterns that leap off the page.

These include things like best Breeders’ Cup trainer and jockey records, the best ages of winners, how the European runners fare in certain races and, or course, the post positions (draw).

Many also like to know the records of the favourites over the years with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK – to see if there are certain races the market leaders have struggled in. Ie. contests, that punters have got wrong more often than right.

With this year’s Breeders’ Cup being held at Del Mar – who have the billing ‘Where The Turf Meets The Surf’ – the track is on the tight side that often favours those drawn lower, or horses that can break well from the gates if drawn higher.

So, in a bid to help you narrow down the fields – here some of the key Breeders’ Cup trends that have built up over the last 20 years for four of the main Saturday races – the Filly and Mare Turf, Mile, Turf and, of course, the Classic – where all eyes will be on City Of Troy.

9:01pm Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m4f ITV

The Breeders’ Cup Turf is one of the few races that the European raiders have a top record in – winning eight of the last nine runnings.

Only the Chad Brown-trained Bricks And Mortar in 2019 has failed to make it a Euro clean sweep here.

12 months ago, we saw Aidan O’Brien’s Auguste Rodin win and that was the Ballydoyle handler’s seventh success in the race – wow. He runs Luxembourg and Wingspan this year.

Charlie Appleby has also landed two of the last three and is back with his 2022 winner Rebel’s Romance.

While Frankie Dettori, who is now based in the US, has five past wins to his name – he teams up with old boss John Gosden on Emily Upjohn.

It’s also worth noting Ryan Moore has also bagged five wins in the race – he’s joint leading rider in race with Dettori – and Moore gets the leg-up on Luxembourg.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Trends

19/20 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
19/20 – Had won at least 3 times before
18/20 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
17/20 – Had won a Group/Grade 1 before
16/20 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
15/20 – Had won over 1m4f before
15/20 – European-trained winners
14/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/20 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher (note, different tracks)
13/20 – Placed favourites
10/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – US-trained winners
5/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/20 – Winning favourites
Europe have won 9 of the last 11
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner 5 times
5 of the last 13 runnings went to trainer Aidan O’Brien
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 7 times

Past Breeders’ Cup Turf Winners

2023 – Auguste Rodin
2022 – Rebel’s Romance
2021 – Yibir
2020 – Tarnawa
2019 – Bricks And Mortar

9:41pm – Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Dirt) 1m2f ITV4

The Breeders’ Cup Classic is the race with the most prize money and most years also the race that grabs most of the attention.

This year is no different with the focus on the race a new levels – mainly due to the participation of City Of Troy, who will be looking to give trainer Aidan O’Brien a first win in the race.

City Of Troy will also be hoping to become the first European winner of the Classic since Raven’s Pass in 2008 (Gosden) and many people feel he’s the banker of the meeting with the best betting sites in the UK.

He’ll face a stern challenge from this season’s Kentucky Derby third Forever Young, who will be flying the flag for Japan, plus the Todd Pletcher-trained Fierceness, who was a nice winner of the Travers Stakes last time out.

It’s all set up to be a ‘must-see’ race – and with five of the last nine winners from post position 5 or lower this is a plus for City Of Troy. But it’s worth noting that we’ve not had a winner from gate 3 (his draw) since 1998.

33% of the last nine winners have come from gate 4 – but with 100/1 outsider Mixto getting this stall it would be a huge shock if we see another.

We’ve also never seen a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner aged 6+ – meaning the older runners Senor Buscador, Next and Ushba Tesoro have this to overcome.

Breeders’ Cup Classic Trends

20/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
20/20 – Had won over at least 9f before
20/20 – Raced in the last 9 weeks
19/20 – Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
19/20 – USA-trained winners
19/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Had won at least 5 times before
13/20 – Won last time out
14/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/20 – Unplaced favourites
8/20 – Had raced at Belmont Park last time out
4/20 – Winning favourites
4 of the last 10 winners were trained by Bob Baffert (winning-most trainer)
John W. Sadler (US) has trained 2 of the last 6 winners
Last European-trained winner Raven’s Pass (2008, Gosden/Dettori)
In the 40 runnings to date of the Breeders’ Cup Classic – 4 year-old horses have the best record – winning 17, while 3 year-olds have taken 13 and 5 year-olds have won 10
Last winner from stall 3 was in 1998
All winners aged 5 or younger

Recent Breeders’ Cup Classic Winners

2023 – White Abarrio (13/5 fav)
2022 – Flightline (4/9 fav)
2021 – Knicks Go (16/5)
2020 – Authentic (9/2)
2019 – Vino Rosso (4/1)

10:25pm Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) 1m3f ITV4

12 months ago, we saw the classy mare Inspiral winning the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, but she’s not back this year.

The first thing that the Breeders’ Cup trends here tell us is that this has been a poor race for the US trainers in recent years – with 7 of the last 8 going to non-US stables.

That could easily be on the cards again, with Irish handler Aidan O’Brien Content and Charlie Appleby having Cinderella’s Dream – the top two in the market. While George Boughey runs Soprano and Charlie Appleby also has Beautiful Love entered.

It’s also a race that 91% of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or younger – so bad news for War Like Goddess (7) and Didia (6).

While 4 and 5 year-olds have the best record – winning 13 of the last 20.

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Trends

20/20 – Had raced in the last 12 weeks
19/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
18/20 – Won by either a UK/Ire (9) or US (9) based yard
17/20 – Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
16/20 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
15/20 – Placed favourites
15/20 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower (note, different tracks)
15/20 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Had won no more than 6 times
13/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/20 – Had won over 1m2f+ before
9/20 – Drawn in stalls 5,6 or 7 (note, different tracks)
8/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Winning favourites
Just 2 winning favourite in the last 11 runnings
7 of the last 8 winners NON-US trained
10 of the last 11 winners aged 5 or younger
4 of the last 11 runnings went to trainer Chad Brown
No horse has won back-to-back runnings
Ouija Board (2004 & 2006) the only horse to win the race twice

Recent Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Winners

2023 – Inspiral
2022 – Tuesday
2021 – Loves Only You
2020 – Audarya
2019 – Iridessa

11:45pm Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m ITV4

We have to wait until 11:45pm in the UK to watch the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but it will hopefully be worth the wait – as this has been a ‘blue’ race for Godolphin for the last three years.

They will be going for a record-breaking fourth Breeders’ Cup win on the spin (I don’t think this has even been done) with Notable Speech, who landed this year’s 2000 Guineas for trainer Charlie Appleby.

William Buick has also ridden the last three winners for the ‘boys in blue’ and he gets the ride on Notable Speech in search of his fourth win in the Mile.

The last 10 winners of the Mile were also all aged between 3-5, which would rule out Goliad and Ten Happy Rose.

If, however, you are looking to take on the Godolphin horse (Notable Speech) – you might like to know that 19 of the last 20 winners took this off the back of a top four finish last time out (95%).

Breeders’ Cup Mile Trends

20/20 – Had won over at least a mile before
19/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
19/20 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/20 – Aged 4 or older
14/20 – Had won a Group/Grade1 race before
11/20 – US-trained winners
11/20 – Winning favourites (including 6 of last 11)
8/20 – Drawn between stalls 8-11 (note, different tracks)
7/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – French-trained winners
5/20 – UK/IRE-trained winners
The last 10 winners aged 5 or younger (between 3-5)
Trainer Godolphin, Charlie Appleby & jockey William Buick have won the last 3 runnings
Trainer Mark Casse has won 2 of the last 9 renewals

Breeders’ Cup Mile Winners

2023 – Master Of Seas
2022 – Modern Games
2021 – Space Blues
2020 – Order Of Australia
2019 – Uni

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