Betting Tips

Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Tuesday Picks – October 1st

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andrewmount
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andrewmount Horse Racing Expert

Andrew Mount is a leading racing adviser, broadcaster and journalist with over 20 years experience in the industry. He is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing & Football Outlook, the Racing Post Weekender and the GG.co.uk website and has written more than 20 horses-to-follow books. Andrew specialises in a systems-based statistical approach to betting sites and is an expert pundit on William Hill radio and Racing Post TV.

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Published5 hours ago on September 30, 2024

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Andrew Mount

Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.

Andrew heads to Bath, Ayr and Newcastle for his four stats-based selections on Tuesday, October 1st…

BATH 1.30

GILBERT (system – Cityscape, soft or heavy going)

GILBERT’s chance is far from obvious – Adam West’s five-year-old finished last of 11 at Windsor on his latest start – but that was on good to firm going and today’s heavy conditions could help the son of Cityscape to bounce back to some sort of form. His sire’s progeny are nine from 45 on heavy ground (+£23.95 to a £1 level stake at SP) and he’s placed in two of his last three starts on soft or heavy going.

 

AYR 1.40

POWER OF GOLD (system – John & Sean Quinn, Ayr)

It was hard to make ground from off the pace at Ayr’s Western meeting last month and that was certainly the case in the 1m Ayrshire Cancer Support Handicap when the winner (“disputed lead, led after 2f”) and short-head runner-up (“disputed lead”) were in the van throughout. POWER OF GOLD, sent off at 16-1, did well to finish fourth under a patient ride in that Class 5 contest and looks worth an each-way dabble today. The likely stronger pace in this apprentice handicap will suit and, since 2010, his stable is 45 from 261 at Ayr (17.2%) for a profit of £41.91 (expected winners = 34.75, A/E = 1.29).

 

NEWCASTLE 5.30

PONS AELIUS (system – Charlie Johnston, very small fields)

Charlie Johnston has had a difficult season, but the yard’s fortunes have taken an upturn in recent weeks. There’s an interesting stat regarding the yard’s record in very small fields since Charlie took over the licence from his father and had we bet all his runners in fields of five or less we’d have won 40 of our 146 bets (27.4%) and made a profit of £39.11 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 31.50, A/E = 1.27). On the all-weather only the score is 17 from 51 (33%) for a profit of £41.99. The yard’s runners, often ridden prominently, seem better equipped to cope with small-field tactical affairs, so perhaps PONS AELIUS (4-1 third favourite at the time of writing) can get the better of his four rivals in this 2m contest.

 

NEWCASTLE 7.00

FORMBY (system – Mayson, first run since gelded)

Progeny of the sire Mayson have a good record on their first start following a gelding operation, landing 16 of their 84 starts (19.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £24.54 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 9.88, A/E = 1.62). The bulk of the profits came on the all-weather and Julie Camacho’s FORMBY, gelded since a respectable 33-1 sixth of 13 in a 6f Southwell maiden last month, can get off the mark in the first-time hood.

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