The 2024-25 Atlanta Hawks are a better team than you think

To many people, this season is more of a rebuild for the Atlanta Hawks. After all, they traded away their second-best player, Dejounte Murray, to the New Orleans Pelicans, conceding that their decision to bring him on board was a misstep. 

But those individuals are making a grave mistake: prioritizing star counting over proper roster building. In reality, what looks like a less talented team is actually a more balanced and versatile unit. One that could sneak up on some teams in the Eastern Conference. 

Addition By Subtraction

Last season, Trae Young missed 23 games from late February to early April. In that stretch, the Hawks went 12-11 (43-win pace in an 82-game season), which is much better than they performed in their other 59 games (24-35, 34-win pace). During that time, I wrote about how this span was evidence, not that the Hawks were better off without Young, but rather that Murray and Young were not destined to be backcourt partners.

According to PBP Stats, Young and Murray posted a net rating of -5.71 in the 1,172 minutes they shared the court together in 2023-24. For reference, every other “star” duo in the league had a positive net rating in their minutes.

Another merit against their chemistry is that none of the Hawks’ top 5 lineups featured both of the guards on the floor at the same time. 

2023-24 Atlanta Hawks Top 5 Lineups*

*Data Provided by Cleaning the Glass

Now, with Murray gone, the Hawks no longer have to worry about the suboptimal fit between the two. Plus, they ended up with the better player (Young’s offense is far superior, and Murray’s defense isn’t good enough anymore to make up the difference).

Lineups That Make Sense

In basketball, you can only put five people on the court at once. To win, you need that five-man group to have some blend of on-ball creation, spacing, rim pressure, perimeter defense, off-ball defense, and rim protection. At this point, Murray and Young really only provided on-ball creation. So, it was up to the other three players on the floor to fill those voids, and there are very few teams with three role players who can wear all those hats (hint: the Hawks weren’t one of them).

Now, the Hawks have an extra spot in their lineups, making it much more likely that they can check all the necessary boxes. And while they don’t have top-tier personnel, they do have the pieces to put together some pretty well-balanced lineups. Here’s one example of what they can do.

Hypothetical Lineup: Trae Young (PG)/Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG)/Dyson Daniels (SF)/Jalen Johnson (PF)/Clint Capela (C)

We already know that Young is very capable of carrying an offense and being a team’s primary decision-maker. Bogdan Bogdanovic offers secondary creation, spacing, and off-ball defense. Dyson Daniels gives you perimeter defense, off-ball defense, and secondary rim protection (and hopefully soon, some spacing). Jalen Johnson is just a flat-out monster, and if he develops properly, he gives you all six of those things to varying degrees. Then, lastly, Clint Capela gives you rim pressure (as a roll threat) and rim protection.

This is just one possible lineup permutation. Onyeka Okongwu is basically a younger version of Capela. So, he can come in there and fill the same role whenever they need him to. If the Hawks want to play a small ball center, they now have Larry Nance Jr., courtesy of the Murray Deal. If they want more shooting/spacing, Zaccharie Risacher, Garrison Matthews, or Vit Krejci can come in for Daniels. De’Andre Hunter is still a solid three-and-D wing/forward. We haven’t mentioned soon-to-be sophomore combo guard Kobe Bufkin. This team is sneaky deep.

An Abundance of Youth

Along with their depth and lineup balance/versatility, the Hawks have a lot of young players. And as a general rule, the more young players you have, the better the chances are that one (or more) of them takes a big step forward.

Of the 12 players we mentioned above, six of them are under 25 years old.* That doesn’t include Young, who just recently (September 19) celebrated his 26th birthday.

[*Sidebar #1: We aren’t even taking into account Nikola Djurisic [20], the Hawks 2024 second round pick who will be missing the first part of the season with a foot injury.]

Johnson is the most likely candidate to take a great ascension up the player hierarchy next season. Last season, he finished in the 98th percentile in DELTA (a metric from Opta Analyst that tracks a player’s improvement through the course of the season). And given his player profile (he’s a great athlete with size and ball skills), there is hope that he still has a lot more room to grow.

Daniels (21) fell out of the playoff rotation for the Pelicans down the stretch because of his outside shooting (31.1% 3-point shooter). But he’s a phenomenal defender (88th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus). So, if he can figure out that jumper (there’s still a chance, given his age), he could develop into one of the better role players in the league.

Dyson Daniels is set to have a breakout season in Atlanta

Excellent PoA defender who improved gradually in his offensive game. He'll carry Trae Young defensively as the 2-guard He bulked up in the last few years, improving his rim-finishing: 59.8 season; will move to 65% this yr pic.twitter.com/yKc799VSeM

— Ersin Demir (@EDemirNBA) September 16, 2024

Bufkin (21) didn’t play much last year (196 total minutes), but he flashed some serious promise at Michigan, particularly as an on-ball creator. In his sophomore season, Bufkin finished in the 72nd percentile in pick and roll ball handler efficiency and the 84th percentile in isolation (per Synergy Sports). He and Bogdanovic can run the offense when Young is on the bench. And thanks to his positional size (6’8 wingspan), the Hawks should be able to survive on defense when he shares the court with Young.

Risacher (19), the Hawks prized first overall pick, doesn’t have the highest upside (many people compare him to players like Michael Porter Jr.). But he is still a big dude (6.9’5 wingspan) who can shoot (Risacher hit 40.7% of his 209 threes in international play), which will take you pretty far in the NBA.

As we said, Okongwu (24) is a younger Capela, meaning the Hawks could theoretically move Capela to add assets elsewhere. And Krejci (also 24) is a solid three-and-D wing/forward on a good contract (4 years, 10.2 million, per Spotrac).

The Bottom Line

Listen, I’m not saying the Hawks are some darkhorse title contender. They may have lineup balance now, but you need lineup balance and talent to win big in this league. The Hawks are still one or two players away from meeting the necessary threshold in that area.*

[*Sidebar #2: In today’s game, having great lineup balance is better than just raw talent.]

But this is still the Eastern Conference we are talking about. The Washington Wizards, Detroit Pistons, and Brooklyn Nets won’t be doing anything. And most likely, neither will the Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors, or Charlotte Hornets. By that math, that means the Hawks are already a top 9 team in the East. That’s already better than they did last year (they were tenth).

But what happens if a couple of the teams in front of them suffer injuries or underperform? Could the Hawks sneak into a top 6 spot?

I don’t think that outcome is out of the realm of possibility, and that alone makes the 2024-25 Hawks better than anyone is giving them credit for.