Texas Holds 25-30% Chance of Sports Betting Legalization in 2025, Per UTSA Political Scientist

The state of Texas holds between a 25-30% chance of legalizing sports betting in 2025, according to the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA) political scientist Jon Taylor.

Texas could legalize sports betting if Donald Trump wins the presidency and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick joins his administration

The Texas legislature made major advances toward passage, giving hope to long-time gamblers in the Lone Star State. Next week’s election could play a big role in whether or not sports wagering gets ratified next year.

In the 2023 legislative session, the House passed a sports betting bill (HB 1942), but it died in the Senate. A few Republicans were against it, such as Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick.

“Could you get a critical mass to be able to get it through the House again? I think you could,” Taylor recently told WOAI News 4. “The problem, again, is Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick in the State Senate.”

There are roughly 16 Senate races slated for this election. However, almost all of them will probably be held by the incumbent party. The only one, Senate District 27, is currently held by the Democratic incumbent Morgan LaMantia.

If Republican nominee Donald Trump defeats Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the Presidential Election, there’s a significant chance that Patrick will end up in the former president’s administration.

That could be the key in order to get the ball rolling on sports betting regulation in Texas.

Democrats are projected to flip seats formerly held by Republicans

Taylor says the House side could also see a couple of swings this year. Multiple Democrats are projected to flip seats formerly held by Republicans, including districts 118 and 121 in San Antonio.

Overall, the political scientist is giving the Lone Star State less than a 50% chance to legalize sports betting in 2025.

“I put the odds at much less than 50% probably closer to about 30% maybe 25% maybe even lower,” Taylor said.

Even if Trump wins the election, the senator that would replace Patrick wouldn’t be in favor of sports wagering any more than his potential predecessor, according to Taylor.

“The guy that’s going to be replacing, potentially, Patrick, is someone who is adamantly opposed to casino gambling and to online gaming,” Taylor said.

Sen. Charles Schwertner (R-Bastrop) could replace Patrick

The presumed Senator who would take over for Patrick if he was to leave to be part of Trump’s cabinet is Sen. Charles Schwertner (R-Bastrop).

Taylor says lawmakers have been becoming more open-minded to gaming bills over the years. This could be because several of their campaigns are funded by donors from the gaming industry.

“What’s interesting, though, is if you look at the members of the State Senate, the Republican members, there are some that are getting donations from casino groups, from gaming groups,” he added.

Texas is one of just 12 states that have not yet legalized sports betting.