Skyrocketing Salaries: Who Will Be The First $100 Million Quarterback?

Sportscasting.com has gathered and analyzed the data to project the first $100 million-per-year quarterback.

Key Highlights:

• A quarterback is projected to sign a contract with an average annual salary of $100 million per year by 2031
• Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is the favorite to be the first $100 million quarterback in the NFL
• Stroud has been given +800 hypothetical odds, followed by Bills quarterback Josh Allen at +850 and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at +950

The NFL quarterback market is showing no signs of slowing down, as Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love each signed for $53 million or more per year in the past couple of months.

Those numbers seem outlandish now, but they will be child’s play once the end of the decade beckons.

By our projections, a quarterback will sign for an average of $100 million per season by 2031, and maybe even 2030.

Projected top QB salary per year based on 23% of salary cap at 8% annual increase

While various factors could affect the cap and quarterback salaries over the next several years, the methodology is rooted in historical data.*

And if a quarterback hits the $100 million per year mark by 2030 or 2031, who will it be?

Odds To Be The First $100 Million-Per-Year QB

Most Likely Quarterback to Sign The First $100 Million-Per-Year Contract

Stars like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson have the talent to be the highest-paid quarterback in 2030 or 2031, but their current deals suggest they could see new contracts closer to the 2027 and 2028 seasons. 

Likewise, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and the rest of the 2024 rookie class should be in the middle of their first big extensions during this time period if they excel out of the gate.

Here are our top-5 predictions to be the first $100-million-per-year quarterback, based on talent, age and contract status.

5. Trevor Lawrence (+1200)

Age: 25
Current contract: $55 million per year through 2030

The timeline matches up well if Lawrence plays out his freshly-signed contract, which may or may not happen based on a confluence of factors.

But if he is up for a new deal and signs either in 2030 or 2031, Lawrence could be the first $100 million-per-year quarterback in NFL history. 

He’s a former No. 1 overall pick who is currently tied for the highest average salary in the league and will still be in the middle of his prime several years down the line.

4. A High School Kid (+2500)

Age: 17
Current contract: $16 per hour at In-N-Out Burger

The current class of high school seniors may well hold the first $100 million-per-year quarterback in the NFL. The group will begin college ball in 2025 and must stay for three years, placing them in the 2028 draft.

The group will then become NFL extension-eligible in 2031, joining the ranks of the current stars in the race to $100 million.

For what it’s worth: LSU commit Bryce Underwood is the highest-rated quarterback prospect in the Class of 2025. If he becomes the first $100 million quarterback in seven or eight years, hopefully this article pops up and I get a 1% royalty fee for a great prediction. (Or at least a shout-out.)

3. Patrick Mahomes (+950)

Age: 29
Current contract: $45 million per year through 2031

Mahomes has the most team-friendly contract in the NFL, and based on his worth to the Chiefs, he can basically force their hand and get a major re-do at any point. The projected top quarterback salary in 2030 is $93.22 million, but Mahomes could easily clear $100 million that season if he so chose, since he’s so much more valuable than anyone else in the league.

The most likely scenario is a major contract adjustment for Mahomes in the next few seasons, which would keep him shy of $100 million per year.

But he has to be near the top of the list, because if becoming the first $100 million-per-year quarterback is something he wants, it’s something he will get.

2. Josh Allen (+850)

Age: 28
Current contract: $43 million per year through 2028

Allen’s deal is also team-friendly, and while Mahomes has declined to play hardball with the Chiefs the past few years, it’s possible the Bills’ star makes a push for a contract re-do heading into 2025 or 2026.

If that happens, he could very well be in line for another payday right near this 2030 or 2031 timeline. While most quarterbacks won’t have a case to take up 25% of the salary cap, Allen can make the same argument as Mahomes if he continues to play at an elite level, making both years viable.

1. C.J. Stroud (+800)

Age: 23
Current contract: $9 million per year through 2026 + fifth-year option

If Stroud’s next two seasons go like his dominant rookie campaign, he will re-set the quarterback market with a massive deal in 2026. By our projections, he could already be pushing $70 million per year with that first payday.

If that happens, Stroud would be in ideal range to get his second big extension in 2030 or 2031, when he will still be just 29 or 30 years old.

Between his age, pedigree and contract timeline, Stroud is our favorite to become the first quarterback in the NFL to sign a deal worth $100 million per year.

Salary Cap Methodology*

The average year-over-year salary cap increase is 7.1% since its implementation 30 years ago, including an average rise of 6.9% over the past decade, even with the negative-growth COVID year.

Based on the likelihood of a revenue windfall from the move to an 18-game season, and after consulting with salary cap experts, our projection uses an 8% year-over-year increase. 

Top quarterback salaries have taken up between 21.5% and 24.5% of the cap in recent years, which is why we are using 23% to project the top QB salary each season.