Has Scoot Henderson Turned A Corner For The Blazers?

After being touted as an elite, readymade point guard prospect by many (myself included) entering his rookie season, Scoot Henderson’s debut campaign did not reinforce such complimentary labels. Despite respectable counting stats, the 20-year-old struggled considerably on both ends. He couldn’t shoot or finish around the rim efficiently. His pacing and footwork were wobbly. His defense was erratic.

It certainly was not the start to a career that anyone envisioned when the Portland Trail Blazers selected him No. 3 in the 2023 Draft. And though no fault of his own, the long-term pressures and expectations further intensified once franchise icon Damian Lillard was dealt away and Henderson effectively became his heir apparent at floor general.

Through five games of his sophomore season, Henderson has showcased some welcomed improvements, particularly as a decision-maker and driver. He will need to sustain these developments to prove they’re more than mere October outliers, but the early returns are encouraging for a ball-handler who routinely seemed sped up and out of sorts a season ago — even amid some rosy flashes.

What Henderson Is Doing Well And Differently

Averaging 18.8 drives per game, Henderson has emerged as one of the league’s most prolific slashers thus far. Only Dejounte Murray (one game played), Jalen Brunson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Zion Williamson outpace him nightly, and he’s tied with Luka Doncic for fifth. Last year, he finished 34th at 12.0 per game. He’s added more than 50 percent to that number, while playing 0.7 minutes fewer per game (27.8 vs. 28.5).

There are marked improvements in the tangible aspects behind these drives, too. Getting downhill is important, yet far less so if the end result doesn’t yield much positive impact. Henderson’s forays are now punctuated more fruitfully. During his 2023-24 drives, he shot 41.2 percent and turned the ball over 8.7 percent of the time. This season, he’s shooting 48.4 percent and giving it away on 5.3 percent of those possessions.

Numerous tweaks to his approach are fueling this contrast. He’s wielding newfound change of pace and change of direction to spot cleaner angles inside, and he’s more regularly scanning the floor for kickout options. His tempo also commands more attention, which has opened windows for lobs, and his pass percentage on drives has vaulted from 36.4 to 47.9.

He’s less frequently wandering into sticky situations where the most logical choices are an ill-advised interior shot or impossible passing read. That was a common occurrence for him last season and helped underscore his choppy assimilation to the NBA. His comfort and willingness to toggle between slow and fast, and recognize the beneficial effect that carries, is evident.

Henderson’s uptick as a driver has shrewdly come at the expense of his off-the-bounce pursuits. Across the board, he is jacking fewer jumpers and calling the basket his home. As a rookie, pull-ups comprised 43.7 percent of his shot profile and his 44.8 effective field goal percentage was 45th among 56 players with 300-plus attempts.

Whether it was out of ball-screens or random creation tries, he tended to settle for what the defense offered and let teams off the hook. This season, he’s still not converting (29.4 effective field goal percentage), yet his rate of those looks has declined to 28.8 percent.

How Henderson Keep Can Improving

In time, an intermediate pull-up will be a necessary tool for him. It’s not as though he’s completely abandoned the shot either. In-game reps are occurring nonetheless. But an understanding to trim some fat out of the diet has been useful, and represents commendable self-awareness as he progresses throughout his career. He’s shooting 50 percent on 2-pointers (41.6 percent last year) and his true shooting percentage has spiked from 48.9 to 55.7 percent.

By cutting back on the jumpers, Henderson’s added foul-drawing opportunities and craft. His free-throw rate is up to .424 (.256 in 2023-24). He already sports games with nine and eight free throw attempts, the latter of which is a threshold he cleared just three times across 62 games last year. Given his frame, rickety jumper and propensity to drive, he should be a voluminous foul-drawer. The first five games of 2024-25 are a springboard toward that.

Although he’s increased his rim frequency from 33 to 52 percent (95th percentile among point guards, per Cleaning the Glass), he’s not become anywhere close to an adept finisher. After shooting 46 percent (seventh percentile) last season, he’s shooting 52 percent (33rd percentile) and continually ends his dribble a beat earlier than preferred. It leads to shallower takeoff points that complicate his efforts and enables rim protectors ample time to best alter his shots.

Incorporating a floater into his arsenal would embed greater balance into his choices as a paint scorer. He shot 36 percent (21st percentile) between 4 and 14 feet last year, and is 1-of-6 to begin his sophomore soirée. That, plus a dependable midrange pull-up, would broaden his potency in the pick-and-roll.

This season, if a lane inside isn’t available, he’s shown a tendency to extinguish advantages too quickly by swinging kickout passes. They don’t bend the defense and keep his club searching for something. It’s good he’s not forcing shots he cannot reliably make, but he needs more at his disposal when turning the corner than field goals directly at the rim or possible free throws.

The Blazers’ rebuild hinges significantly on Henderson becoming very good. Last season’s sample did not bode well for that. This latest sample, though, is trending upward. It’s a testament to his perceived progress, and emphasizes that he must maintain and expand this trajectory to become everything everyone hopes he can be.