Thursday Night Football Week 3: Patriots vs. Jets Picks, Predictions, & Best Player Props Bets

Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the Patriots vs. Jets in an AFC East matchup. Check out our Patriots vs. Jets picks, predictions, & best player prop bets. 

The New England Patriots have been surprisingly competitive in 2024, in what many expected to be a very down year for them. They shocked the Bengals in Week 1 with an upset road victory and almost moved to 2-0 after falling in the waning seconds at home to Seattle in Week 2.

FIRST @NFL TOUCHDOWN JA'LYNN POLK!!!!!@jpolk_22 | @JBrissett12 pic.twitter.com/loEvUOB7H9

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 15, 2024

The Jets looked a little rusty and sluggish in Aaron Rodgers’s first game back from an Achilles injury last year. They lost on the road to the defending NFC Champion 49ers 32-19 in Week 1 but bounced back with a hard-fought 24-17 road victory in Week 2 at Tennessee. Now, they host the Patriots in Week 3 for their 2024 home opener.

Patriots vs. Jets Betting Preview

All Patriots vs. Jets odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct on Tuesday, Sept. 17.

• Spread
  Jets -6.5
• Moneyline
  Patriots +230 | Jets -285
• Over/Under
  38.5
• Game time
  8:15 p.m. ET
• Location
  MetLife Stadium | East Rutherford, NJ
• Predicted Weather at Kick
  72 degrees, Partly Cloudy – 50% Chance of Rain
• How to Watch
  Amazon Prime Video

We’ve seen a slight line movement in the spread. This one opened as Jets -7.5 and has since fallen to Jets -6.5. As with all Patriot games in 2024, the total has fallen. It initially opened at 42 and has dropped to 38.5.

The Patriots will enter Thursday night’s tilt with the Jets at 2-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Jets are 1-1 ATS.

Check out all of our NFL picks and best picks here! 

Patriots vs. Jets Picks, Predictions, and Best Player Prop Bets

I told myself I was taking Patriot unders unit I lost two in a row. Week 1 hit, but Week 2 went over despite a plodding second half. I’m sticking to my word on this one.

The Jets find themselves in a challenging situation. After starting the season on Monday Night Football on the West Coast, they’ve been on the road again for Week 2, crossing time zones and heading into a second consecutive short week on Thursday night at home.

While primetime unders are a well-known trend and betting favorite, Thursday night games are notorious for hitting the under in low-scoring matchups.

Since 2010, Thursday night games totaling 40 points or lower have gone under 73% of the time (19-7), including a 14-3 record before December. Additionally, primetime games with totals between 37 and 40 (excluding Monday nights) are 44-21-1 (68%) to the under, with Thursday night games in that range going 21-4-1 (84%).

I also never encourage anyone to play teasers or any parlay that is more than a fun shot in the dark. But I do like primetime NFL teasers if they can cross some key numbers, like this one. A 6-point teaser in this one gets you to Patriots +12.5/ under 44.5.

Garrett Wilson Over/under 5.5 Receptions

With the Patriots having the third toughest run defense in football, I expect the Jets to do what many teams have done: rely on short, quick hitters to move the football. Because of this, the Patriots have allowed an average of 19.0 receptions per game to wide receivers—tied for the most in the league. That has me eyeing some over-reception props for the Jets, and Garrett Wilson stands out. With Wilson participating in 100% of the Jets’ routes and commanding 29% of the team’s targets, he’s primed for a potential breakout in catches on Thursday night.

Aaron Rodgers to Garett Wilson is here and it’s beautiful pic.twitter.com/7AQI5JWC2u

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) September 10, 2024

Although his numbers so far have been modest (6 receptions for 60 yards in Week 1 and 4 receptions for 57 yards in Week 2), Wilson’s significant target share and 45% of the team’s air yards indicate he’s on the verge of a bigger performance. The Patriots are unlikely to have star cornerback Christian Gonzalez shadow him on every play, giving Wilson more opportunities to line up in different formations and find favorable matchups to exploit, while Aaron Rodgers and the Jets’ offense rely on some quick hitters on edge to get Wilson the ball in space. The over/under for Wilson is set at 5.5 receptions. I like that over.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over/under 65.5 Rushing Yards

The Patriots are developing a style similar to their teams that emerged as Super Bowl contenders in the early 2000s. Control the ball and time of possession with long sustained drives, run the football effectively, sound defense and tackling, and win the turnover battle.

This fits perfectly with how Rhamondre Stevenson is running the football in 2024.

Direct snap goes to Rhamondre Stevenson for six. @Patriots take the lead!

📺: #SEAvsNE on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/IXSyVVgz9l

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

Stevenson has been the focus of the Patriots’ ground game through the first two weeks and is poised to continue his success against the Jets on Thursday night. New York’s defense has struggled to contain opposing running backs, allowing an average of 114.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 10th most in the NFL.

Stevenson has been consistently productive, rushing 25 times for 120 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, followed by 21 carries for 81 yards and another score in Week 2. Given the Jets’ vulnerabilities against the run, Stevenson is well-positioned to have another strong performance, and it fits the game plan if the Patriots want to stay in this football game. I’ll take over 65.5 rushing yards.

The Prediction: Jets 20 – Patriots 16

Best Bets:

• Under 38.5
• Two-team 6-point teaser: Patriots +12.5/ under 44.5
• Garrett Wilson OVER 5.5 receptions
• Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 65.5 rushing yards