NFC South Twist: Saints Win Division, Falcons Finish Third In Analytics Projection

The Falcons are odds-on betting favorites to win the NFC South following the offseason addition of quarterback Kirk Cousins.

But one prominent analytics site believes the Saints will be the ones atop the pack at the end of the year.

FTN’s Football Almanac has unveiled its 2024 projections and New Orleans is the pick to win the division with an average of 9.7 wins, followed by the Buccaneers with 8.7 and the Falcons at 7.6.

The Falcons have -135 odds to win the NFC South at Caesars Sportsbook, while New Orleans is listed as a +425 longshot, but almanac author Aaron Schatz feels confident in his Saints projection.

“I’m not being facetious when I say this: the Saints bore everybody,” Schatz told Sportscasting.com. “They’re really boring. Their coach does nothing to move the needle as far as interest. The quarterback is really average. They are just tremendously average.

“The thing is, their whole division is like that or worse, and people are so bored by the Saints that they have gotten in their head that this team is bad. They’ve lulled everybody into thinking they suck when they actually do not.”

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The Saints went 9-8 last season and finished No. 15 in overall team efficiency. They are again projected to finish 15th, which, combined with the second-easiest schedule in the league, gives them a 63% chance of making the playoffs by FTN projections.

New Orleans has an over/under of 7.5 wins this season and are +165 underdogs to make the playoffs at Caesars.

“I don’t think there’s any reason to believe the Saints are going to be worse than last year, other than random variation, which also might make them better than last year,” Schatz said. “They lost Michael Thomas, but what was Michael Thomas still giving them at this point? Yes, there are questions about the offensive line, but they added (edge) Chase Young, so there are places where they added. 

“It looks like the same thing. But that same thing, in my mind, is the best team in the NFC South.”

Derek Carr ‘Not As Bad As People Think’

Derek Carr is clearly not among the upper echelon of quarterbacks but he’s squarely in the middle tier, finishing 17th, 19th and 11th in passing DVOA the past three seasons.

“Carr is not as bad as people think,” Schatz said. “Carr is very average. Not bad.”

Even if Carr performs similarly to 2023, he could have better numbers. The Saints averaged only 4.5 yards after the catch on his throws last season, which was among the dregs of the NFL.

If that improves, his yards per completion could tick back up after finishing at just 10.3 last year, the lowest since his rookie year.

There is hope that can happen with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak coming over from the YAC-machine 49ers. 

“How much is it scheme vs. player?” Schatz said. “ If it has to do with players, they are running out the same receivers as last year, except for WR3. If it has to do with players, Olave is not suddenly going to become some sort of YAC person. But if it has to do with scheme, then maybe all of a sudden they’re getting more yardage.”

The offense is projected to be No. 15 in the NFL and the defense No. 14. Schatz sees this as a very low-variance team unless the veteran stalwarts on defense fall off a cliff.

“The biggest reason why I might be wrong about the Saints, and they would go like 6-11, is if Demario Davis, (Tyrann) Mathieu and Cam Jordan suddenly get old,” Schatz said.

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— Tyrann Mathieu (@Mathieu_Era) August 2, 2024

Kirk Cousins Pessimism

The pessimistic view of the Falcons is very much tied to questions surrounding Cousins as he switches teams and returns from a serious injury.

“You’re talking about a 36-year-old guy on a new team, with a partly-new offense coming off an Achilles tear,” Schatz said. “I just don’t know (what to expect). (The offense) was not good last year. It’s not like he’s walking into an offense that was already top-10. We can talk about Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts – and with Drake London I do think he’s that good – but I feel like we just don’t know.”

The Falcons are projected to have the worst defense in the NFL in 2024, which could be an anchor dropping Atlanta below .500 if Cousins struggles out of the gate.

“It projects to be one of the worst defenses in the league, and therefore, we don’t project them as a winning team,” Schatz said.

When his computer model spits out projections each preseason, Schatz will sometimes have subjective quibbles with the numbers, but he is in lockstep with these NFC South projections that go against the grain.

“Yes, I feel pretty good about our projections, that the Falcons are the third-best team, but with a wider variance,” Schatz said. “The Saints would seem to have a pretty small variance. Maybe Cousins is the 10th-best quarterback in the league, which he’s been generally in the past, and their defense isn’t that bad. So I might be wrong, but I like the odds that I’m right about the Saints being one and Tampa Bay being two.”