Monday Night Football Week 4: Saints vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions, & Best Player Props Bets

The Saints vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football features two Super Bowl hopefuls in the final game to cap off Week 5 of the NFL. 

It’s hard to believe the Kansas City Chiefs stand at a perfect 4-0, especially considering the chatter surrounding the team. The conversation hasn’t been about dominance but about challenges. Injuries have ravaged their skill positions, the offense has looked pedestrian at times, and even Patrick Mahomes—the heartbeat of this team—is on pace for the worst statistical season of his career. And yet, here they are, unbeaten.

With the Minnesota Vikings notching a win on Sunday, the Chiefs must emerge victorious to remain one of only two unbeaten teams left in the league. But the New Orleans Saints are hungry. Battling through a tough start to the year, they sit at 2-2, but a win would push them back above .500 and keep them right in the thick of a division race. Dennis Allen’s team knows a road upset could change the course of their season.

Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes clash under the bright lights of Monday Night 🤩

This is going to be a good one 🔥

Saints-Chiefs | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN pic.twitter.com/4tgmLEOJO9

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 7, 2024

Yes, the Saints have dropped two in a row, but their defense continues to tell a different story. They rank fourth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed and second in Defensive DVOA—a testament to their strength. And the passing defense has been the cornerstone of this unit.

For Kansas City, the stakes remain high. For New Orleans, it’s a chance to turn things around. In a season full of twists, this could be another defining moment for both teams. The Chiefs’ perfect record is on the line, and the Saints are ready to play spoiler.

Check out our Saints vs. Cheifs betting preview, picks, predictions, and best player props!

Saints vs. Chiefs Betting Preview

All Saints vs. Chiefs odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct on Monday, Oct. 7.

• Spread
   Chiefs -5
• Moneyline
  Saints +210 | Chiefs -250
• Over/Under
  43.5
• Game time
  8:15 p.m. ET
• Location
  Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City, MO
• Predicted Weather at Kick
  62 degrees, Partly Cloudy
• How to Watch
  ESPN

Check out all of our NFL picks and best picks here! 

Seahawks vs. Lions Picks, Predictions, and Best Player Prop Bets

With two elite defenses set to collide, Sunday’s matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints feels destined for a low-scoring battle. Barring a flurry of turnovers that lead to short fields, points may be hard to come by. The Saints, confident in their defensive front, rank 12th in Rush EPA per play allowed, and they’ll be tasked with slowing down a Kansas City run game led by Kareem Hunt. Hunt, now 29 and picked up off the free-agent market, showed flashes of his old self last week, but against a tough Saints defense, it’s hard to envision a breakout performance.

The question that lingers for New Orleans is whether their offense can find a way to crack Kansas City’s defense, which has been steady but far from dominant. After a blistering start to the season, where they scored 91 points in the first two games, the Saints have managed just 36 in the last two.

Still, this could be the game where Derek Carr finds his groove. The Chiefs rank 15th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play, leaving room for Carr to attack their secondary if the Saints’ offensive line holds up. The Chiefs’ task will be to maintain their solid play against the run and let defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo confuse Carr with timely blitzes.

Despite its 4-0 record, Kansas City has yet to win a game by more than one possession, hinting at an eventual stumble. With New Orleans’ strong track record as a road underdog under head coach Dennis Allen—7-4 against the spread in that role—the Saints seem poised to keep this game close and perhaps even pull off an upset.

Xavier Worthy – WR | Chiefs – Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Xavier Worthy has shown flashes of brilliance as a receiver this season, but it’s his rushing prop that’s caught my eye. Worthy has exceeded this mark in three of four games. With the Saints’ stout run defense and the running back room banged up for the Chiefs, I believe Andy Reid and the Chief’s offense must get creative in working the run game into a positive tonight. Reid is a master at drawing up WR runs with pre-snap motion, and tonight, he’ll have to get extra creative. With Kansas City’s offense lacking consistency in the run game, I see them leaning on their rookie speedster to bring that extra spark.

While Kareem Hunt has filled in admirably, I don’t have enough confidence in him to believe the Chiefs will rely solely on traditional ground attack. Kansas City has been creative with Worthy, using his speed to stretch defenses in multiple ways. In a game where every yard could matter, look for the Chiefs to continue tapping into Worthy’s versatility. His rushing prop could quietly be one of the best plays of the week.

Patrick Mahomes – QB | Chiefs – OVER 33.5 Passing Attempts (-115)

Patrick Mahomes has only crossed the 35-passing-attempt mark once this season, in a hard-fought 39-attempt performance during the Chiefs’ 22-17 victory over the Falcons. But with the Saints’ defense standing tall against the run, and Kansas City’s skill positions depleted by injuries, this week may require something different from Mahomes—something creative.

The Saints’ stout run defense means Kansas City might need to abandon a traditional ground game and rely on short, quick passes to keep the chains moving. Getting the ball out of Mahomes’ hands quickly could be the key to limiting the Saints’ pass rush and finding success. In a game where yards may be hard to come by, those short throws could add up quickly, pushing Mahomes’ passing attempts higher than usual.

"Dad, how good was Patrick Mahomes?" pic.twitter.com/8PbZKfhikR

— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) October 6, 2024

And then there’s the scenario that feels all too familiar—a late fourth-quarter drive, the Chiefs needing a score to recapture the lead. It’s in those moments that Mahomes thrives, and when the pressure mounts, so too do his passing attempts. That’s why this over on his passing attempts feels like the right play.

When the game is on the line, Mahomes will be the one to take matters into his own hands—attempt after attempt, pushing Kansas City forward, doing whatever it takes to keep the Chiefs unbeaten.