NBA

Four Big Bets The Knicks And TWolves Made With Their Blockbuster Trade

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Esfandiar Baraheni
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Published3 hours ago on September 28, 2024

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Karl-Anthony Towns and Julius Randle

A trade that happens in September, just days before teams are set to answer questions on Media Day, is incredibly bold. Make that trade a blockbuster that includes two franchise pillars swapping teams and conferences, thoroughly shaking up the structure of the NBA… and you have one of the most shocking trades in recent memory.

Last night, it was announced that Minnesota will be trading long-time Timberwolves star Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for a package that includes Julius Randle, a disgruntled Donte DiVincenzo, and a 2025 protected first-round pick via Detroit, among other things.

Both teams seemingly had hopes of contending for a championship this season, which begs us to ask:

Why now?

For Minnesota, this is a way to create some flexibility in the long term by moving off of Towns’s 4-year/$220M contract and exchanging it for Randle’s expiring deal and DiVincenzo’s high-value 4-year/$47M contract. This team was headed into the second apron, and ultimately, they opted to jump in front of that by trading Towns, the former number-one overall pick who spent the last nine years of his career battling through the most tumultuous of times while helping the Timberwolves turn into a contender. It’s gutsy and brings multiple questions about the short-term goals for a Minnesota team that made it to the Western Conference Finals last season.

For New York, this pushes their chips further in for this current core. The team is now expensive with the addition of Towns. Still, given their lack of depth in the frontcourt after losing Isaiah Hartenstein in the offseason and Mitchell Robinson going down with an injury that will likely hold him out of games until January, this was a way for them to address their needs at the center position while improving their roster and getting another star to pair alongside Jalen Brunson.

Both of these teams are betting big. I imagine both front offices believe they “got one over” on the other.

What are the Knicks betting on?

1. Betting on their defensive talent on the perimeter to compensate for KAT’s defensive shortcomings

Tom Thibodeau has tried in the past to construct a sound defense around Karl-Anthony Towns. It didn’t pan out. However, Towns has improved as a defender since 2018. He’s smarter positionally and has gotten better at using his length in passing lanes, his strength against post-ups, and moving his feet while guarding pick-and-rolls.

It helped that Towns was in a defensive infrastructure that included Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, and Mike Conley, but the Knicks’ defensive core is nothing to scoff at. Between Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby, the Knicks have the length and perimeter activity to help Towns as he shows and recovers on pick-and-rolls. The weak-side rim protection that all three of Josh Hart, Anunoby, and Bridges provide will also be a bonus. Still, it’ll be on Thibodeau to adjust to his new big man in the middle, finding unique ways to utilize Towns’s new-found defensive abilities while protecting him from some of his shortcomings.

2. KAT can slot in as a power forward, at times, with either Mitchell Robinson or Precious Achiuwa

After spending most of his career at center, Towns had to adjust to life as a power forward next to Rudy Gobert for the last two seasons. After a rough first year with the duo, the 2023-2024 season was a significant improvement, with KAT winning his minutes (+9.2) at the four more than when he was the five in lineups (+6.2). At the four, Towns is asked to guard on the perimeter more and, depending on the matchup, could be torched by faster, more agile perimeter players. Offensively, it clogged up the Timberwolves’ spacing, especially on drives, where Gobert was usually crowding the middle. Minnesota ranked 17th in offensive rating last season for a reason: their double-big lineups warped their spacing.

How does that look in New York next to Mitchell Robinson or Precious Achiuwa? Are those lineups tenable defensively without the all-time shot-blocking presence of Gobert? Offensively, does that warp the floor for Brunson to operate in the mid-range as it did for Edwards? Again, this question must be addressed as the team sorts out its different lineup variations.

3. The 5-out offense that KAT unlocks for the Knicks compensates for Hartenstein’s loss

The Knicks will miss Isaiah Hartenstein on both ends of the floor. His defensive contributions were unquestionable, and his offensive contributions as a screener and short-roll shot-maker will now be used in OKC as a change-up to their potent five-out offensive scheme. With Towns in New York, the idea is that the 7-footer’s unbelievable shooting ability (a career 40% three-point shooter on good volume) will stretch out defenses and open up space for Brunson to operate. While Bridges, Anunoby, and Hart are all capable-to-good stationary shooters, Towns is elite off of movement, shifting into space, roaming around the perimeter, and knocking down high-difficulty shots from downtown. He shot 42% on above-the-break threes last season, which will only help further stretch out the floor for the Knicks on offense. The real question will be how willing Towns will be as a screener, especially when setting up Brunson to get downhill and how that compares to Randle’s rolling gravity. Randle only ran 43 possessions last season as the PnR Roll-man and put up a measly 0.79 points per possession; meanwhile, Towns was excellent, generating over 1.4 points per possession as the roll-man on over 140 possessions.

4. KAT’s self-creation and playmaking are better than Randle’s in a post-season setting

By the numbers, KAT is a better offensive player than Randle. But it’s close. Last year, he scored nearly 1.1 points per post-up and 0.9 points for every isolation possession. Compare that to Randle, who was below average on post-ups, scoring only 0.88 points per possession and 0.946 points per iso. Ultimately, it comes down to two things: size and decision-making. KAT is bigger than Randle, so he can assert himself in the post and against mismatches in isolation more often. He can look over the top of defensive coverages more often because of that extra size so it’s more tenable that Towns is a better passer than Randle. That said, neither player is particularly good at taking care of the ball and can sometimes be forced into situations where they make ill-advised decisions. Both players have had their playoff blunders, but Randle has struggled more, having a post-season true-shooting percentage of 46%.

The Knicks missed Randle’s blend of shotmaking and scoring gravity in the post-season, and their ultimate downfall was a combination of injuries and relying too much on Brunson on the offensive end. Towns should help in that department even more than Randle. Think of all the 5-out delay actions the Knicks can now run with Towns at the top and cutters around him.

What Are The Wolves Betting On?

1. Both Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels take sizable leaps on the offense end with extra usage

Randle will likely slot into Towns’s starting spot for this upcoming season. However, given that this is primarily a financially motivated trade for Minnesota, it’s hard to imagine Randle, an expiring contract looking for a hefty payday, is a part of their long-term plans. For that reason, the Timberwolves will seek sizable offensive leaps from Sixth Man of the Year Reid and their wing-stopper McDaniels.

The Wolves were better with Reid and Gobert on the floor (+9.68 in 891 minutes) than Towns and Gobert (+7.53 in over 1200 minutes) — especially defensively. But still, Reid’s usage on offense was rightfully in role-player territory (23%), and Towns was closer to All-Star-level usage (27%). How does Reid’s efficient, marksman-like shooting and creation react to an uptick in responsibility?

The same applies to McDaniels, who has never had a usage rate higher than 16% in his career and will likely be asked to do more offensively. For what it’s worth, he had a few standout games in the playoffs: scoring 25 points in a Minnesota win over Phoenix in game 2, dropping 21 and 23 points versus Denver in games 6 and 7 to close out the series, and putting up 24 points against Dallas in game 1 of the Conference Finals. That scoring output has to become more frequent for the 24-year-old wing, and the Wolves are banking on that in a big way.

2. Rob Dillingham becomes Anthony Edwards’s backcourt partner of the future

This was the case before this trade, but the Timberwolves need Rob Dillingham to truly pan out as their eventual replacement for the 37-year-old Mike Conley. Dillingham is just a rookie, and how he deals with being undersized, particularly defensively, will be a big hurdle to his pro-level success. But with Minnesota’s second option, Towns, out the door now, there is even more pressure for Dillingham to pop. It doesn’t necessarily have to be this season. Still, it would be ideal for Wolves fans to glimpse the future if he can immediately step up and be a bench contributor, especially as a scorer. All in all, there will be more opportunity going around with Towns gone, and all three of Reid, McDaniels, and Dillingham stand to benefit.

3. Anthony Edwards makes another leap as a playmaker

Edwards’s assist percentage has steadily increased every year of his career, while his turnover percentage has hovered at around 12%. That’s notable, considering that defenses have had to adjust their coverage of the three-level scorer every year as he becomes more dominant and well-rounded as an offensive weapon. Without Towns, the Wolves will need even more of this. How many more steps he can take as a primary facilitator and decision-maker will ultimately determine this team’s ceiling, especially on the offensive end. Especially as they begin to phase Conley out and incorporate Dillingham, the team will have to lean on Edwards increasingly as their steady hand. My gut tells me he’s prepared for this level of responsibility, but it likely won’t come in time for the Wolves to be dynamite on offense this year.

4. Donte DiVincenzo’s three-point shooting helps open up space for their offense

DiVincenzo was one of the best shooters in the NBA last year, knocking down 40% of his looks on over eight attempts from downtown. The Wolves will be missing Towns’s shooting, but having DiVincenzo as a supplement isn’t too shabby. Besides, Minnesota gets all of the movement shooting prowess with Donte without the spacing issues caused by a Towns-Gobert frontcourt. Ideally, DiVincenzo can serve as an elite floor spacer who can be stout at the point-of-attack alongside a Wolves platoon littered with great defensive talent. They can throw out more unique lineups offensively without having to be pressed about the viability of their frontcourt situation defensively, and ultimately — this is the big selling point for Minnesota.

They’ve added depth by swapping Towns for a multi-time All-NBA player in Randle and a marksman in DiVincenzo. This move provides them more optionality, both in the short-term and the long, and while you might have to squint your eyes to see it from their perspective, you can sell yourself on the idea that Minnesota will be just as good in the regular season as they were last year.

The primary question is how all of that translates to the post-season, though, particularly given Randle’s struggles in a playoff setting. From that point of view, it feels like the Timberwolves ceiling as a team is lower now. But in their mind, they’re fine taking a step back to take a more significant step forward eventually.

For the Knicks, it’s the opposite. It’s doubling down on an already-potent championship-worthy roster by adding one of the best shooting big men of all time and hoping that their defensive infrastructure can insolate some of his flaws on that end. New York is all in on winning a championship within the next few seasons, and those levels of expectations will determine how people will look back on this era of Knicks basketball. Still, you can’t help but feel this has been a team-building masterclass over the last few seasons in New York. Bringing in Brunson on a good value deal, re-signing him on an even better one, and taking a swing on Anunoby by trading players they didn’t want to continue paying while using their draft capital to round out their core with Bridges and Hart, all while extending both to team-friendly deals as well. New York took a patient approach; they were measured in their moves for the first time since I started watching basketball. And now, armed with one of the best rosters in the NBA, they can win their first championship in 50 years.

We’ll see how it pans out.