Evaluating ESPN Men’s NCAA Basketball Rank’s Biggest Mistakes: Who is ranked too highly? Who is too low?

ESPN released its preseason top 100 ranking for the upcoming college basketball season. As always, lists like this will spur conversation and spark debate. Without a scientific methodology, there’s plenty of room for disagreement over a ranking like this.

Let’s discuss some of the players I think are most overrated and most underrated on their ranking. We’ll dive deeper into a few of the rankings I have extended thoughts on. Here’s a list of the placements I think are off by at least 10 spots, beginning with the players that are ranked too low:

• Kon Knueppel (97)
• Jaland Lowe (84)
• Xaivian Lee (82)
• Ian Schieffelin (72)
• Jamir Watkins (71)
• Jackson Shelstad (55)
• Josh Hubbard (42)
• Tyon Grant-Foster (41)
• Collin Murray-Boyles (34)
• Tamin Lipsey (14)

And these are the players I feel are ranked a bit too highly:

• Drake Powell (88)
• Tyrese Proctor (66)
• Malik Reneau (44)
• AJ Storr (31)
• Bryce Hopkins (26)
• Tre Johnson (25)
• Ace Bailey (9)
• Wade Taylor IV (7)
• Caleb Love (6)
• Hunter Dickinson (4)

Kon Knueppel

It’s understandable to retain some skepticism for freshmen entering college basketball. The transition from high school can be daunting. But this ranking features quite a few freshmen who won’t be better college players than Kon Knueppel will be this season.

Some of the newcomers ahead of him may sport higher ultimate ceilings. But Knueppel’s polished skillset should let him star immediately, especially if his preseason success is any indication. Knueppel will walk into college basketball as one of its best shooters. He’s elite from all areas of the floor, sprinting into threes and fading into mid-range jumpers.

Knueppel can pass, dribble, operate pick and rolls and defend at reasonable levels, at the very least. Again, some of his freshmen peers may eventually develop into better players. But for the moment, there aren’t 95 college basketball players better than Knueppel.

Josh Hubbard

We don’t often see players enter college basketball and shoot the ball like Josh Hubbard did last season. As a freshman, he made 35.5% of an enormous volume (18.3 per 100 possessions) of triples. He converted 41.8% of his 98 long twos with over 90% of the attempts being unassisted.

Standing at 5’10, Hubbard’s weaknesses are obvious. At any level of basketball, height is critical, and teams can hunt Hubbard for that size. He’s a limited interior scorer with clear defensive limitations.

But Hubbard’s elite strengths outweigh his weaknesses at the college level. Shooting reigns supreme in the modern game of basketball and Hubbard is one of the best. As he continues to develop as a playmaker and defender, Hubbard could establish himself as one of the country’s best players.

Collin Murray-Boyles

Murray-Boyles returned to South Carolina after garnering significant draft buzz. Some scouts (myself included) view Murray-Boyles as a possible top-10 pick next summer. Regardless of his NBA upside, Murray-Boyles was an elite college player as a freshman.

His 9.5 box plus-minus ranks sixth of all returning college players. Murray Boyles scored efficiently (61.6%) and passed the ball at a high level all while being one of the best defenders in the nation. Entering his second season, Murray-Boyles should continue to dominate.

As a shorter big man, Murray-Boyles’s three-point shooting will sit at the front of scouts’ minds. But that won’t limit his impact in the college game. With the potential to harbor much more offensive responsibility, Murray-Boyles will be one of the 10-15 most impactful college players this season. 

Drake Powell, Tre Johnson and Ace Bailey

All three of these highly regarded high school prospects will have the chance to star in college basketball. But high recruiting rankings don’t always correlate to immediate college success. Take the 2023 recruiting class as an example, with quite a few top 15 high-schoolers (Justin Edwards, Aaron Bradshaw, Xavier Booker, Omaha Billew, etc) disappointing in their freshmen seasons.

Powell is a phenomenal athlete and defensive player, but he may need time on the bench to learn before he can contribute on the offensive end. Johnson’s shotmaking should translate but the college game could expose his athletic limitations as a driver. Bailey has the potential to develop into a star, but his decision-making issues could make him a less consistent college player.

All three of these players can improve and develop into productive college and pro players. I’m skeptical of them living up to each of their rankings, though, on a list geared toward this current college season.

AJ Storr

After transferring to Kansas from Wisconsin this season, many expect Storr to develop into an elite player this season. He has the theoretical athletic tools and scoring flashes to become a valuable basketball player. But is it fair to expect Storr to contribute at a top-30 level this season?

Outside of scoring, Storr must improve many facets of his game. Based on what we’ve seen of him in the past, he’s a limited playmaker (0.6 assist-to-turnover ratio) who’s struggled to score efficiently (53% effective field goal percentage). He’s a strangely inactive defensive playmaker, recording paltry steal rates (1.3%) and block rates (0.5%) despite his athletic tools.

Storr could unlock college star impact. In a better situation with more talented teammates, his efficiency should increase. But we’re yet to see Storr impact winning at an elite level. Before that happens, I’m skeptical of his status as a top 35 player in the nation.

To end off this story, here are some players left off of ESPN’s top 100 ranking that I feel were snubbed entirely:

• Joshua Jefferson (Iowa State)
• Nique Clifford (Colorado State)
• Chris Manon (Vanderbilt)
• Koby Brea (Kentucky)
• Chad Baker-Mazara (Auburn)
• Owen Freeman (Iowa)
• Saint Thomas (USC)