Analytics Guru: Arizona Cardinals Projected To Be Worse On Offense Than Last Year

Kyler Murray is fully healthy and turning heads at training camp.

Marvin Harrison, Jr. was born to be an NFL star and could be an impact player as a rookie.

The offensive line looks stronger, the wide receiver corps deeper, the offensive system crisper.

And yet, the projection system run by longtime analytics guru Aaron Schatz has the Cardinals offense going backward in 2024, from No. 21 in the NFL last season to No. 25 this year.

“I’ll fully admit it looks weird,” said Schatz, whose FTN Football Almanac is now available for purchase.

Kyler Murray Will Play Biggest Part in Offense’s Fortunes

The Cardinals had Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune at the helm for nine games last season, while Murray played the final eight in the midst of his ACL recovery.

Conventional wisdom says the presence of the dynamic Murray will boost the offense, but his past two seasons have given the FTN projection system pause.

Murray was dinged for inconsistency during Kliff Kingsbury’s chaotic final year at the helm in 2022, and graded out as an average quarterback in 2023.

“Murray hasn’t been the same guy since halfway through 2021,and we don’t exactly know why that is,” Schatz said. “Last year he was basically average in DVOA, and the year before, before the injury, he was below average. 

“We know the talent is there, the potential is there. We’ve seen it. In 2021, he was really good, but he just hasn’t been that guy for a couple of years.”

While the model has some pessimism regarding Murray based on his recent production, the Cardinals chapter in the book says some of the FTN analysts disagree with it, which includes Schatz.

“I remember the Kyler of 2021 and I feel like he should be better than this (projection),” Schatz said. “If you ask me subjectively to go around boosting or dropping projections, I would probably boost the Cardinals a little bit. I do think Kyler’s got real talent.”

I’m buying all the Kyler hype. Been throwing darts all camp long pic.twitter.com/IaxyyV0h1b

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 3, 2024

The Cardinals are projected to finish 25th in offensive DVOA and 26th on defense. Combine that with the NFL’s sixth-hardest schedule, and Arizona is projected to finish with 6.6 wins this year, which would be bottom-5 in the NFL.

FTN gives the Cardinals a 17.2% chance to make the playoffs and 33% chance to finish with a top-5 pick. 

“I can’t imagine that they go out there with this roster and be some sort of (successful) defense and running team, especially against this schedule,” Schatz said.

Can Marvin Harrison Jr. Buck Historical Trend?

Harrison, Jr. is expected to be a difference-maker early, but Schatz said FTN has done research that shows teams often don’t see an immediate benefit when taking a wide receiver or tight end early in the draft.

“There are examples in recent years of teams that drafted rookie wide receivers, and the rookie wide receivers went nuts, and the team offense improved, and everything was good,” Schatz said. “But if you look back at Cardinals history, you actually see a lot of years where they drafted a guy high, and for various reasons – not necessarily related to that guy in any way — their offensive DVOA went down that year. 

“It went down the year they drafted Trey McBride, the year they drafted Christian Kirk, the year they drafted Anquan Boldin, the year they drafted Larry Fitzgerald. Boldin had an amazing rookie year and Larry Fitzgerald is a freakin’ Hall of Famer. So it’s not like any of this is a diss on Marvin Harrison, Jr. It’s just this interesting trend we found to ding the teams with rookie receivers and boost the teams with second-year receivers.”

James Conner Was Great In 2023 But Could Regress

Schatz believes running back James Conner deserves major praise for his under-the-radar production in 2023. Conner finished top-5 in the NFL in running back efficiency and was No. 3 in yards after contact behind De’Von Achane and Jaylen Warren.

“Christian McCaffrey was right after Conner; that’s pretty freaking good,” Schatz said. “At age-28, he was excellent. The problem is now at age-29, you start to expect a bit of a fall. And because he was so good last year, a career year, you expect that to take a bit of a fall.”

The FTN algorithm ignores hype and biases, spitting out its projections based on the data.

But while there are reasons why the Cardinals could struggle on offense, the upside of Murray and Harrison, Jr. means Arizona could very well finish closer to conventional thinking and much better than this projection.

“The Cardinals are definitely a team with high variance,” Schatz said. “If we were wrong about them and it turns out their offense is good, I wouldn’t be shocked.”