Aaron Rodgers At 40 Years Old: How Other QBs Have Performed At His Age

Aaron Rodgers hit a milestone last year. While his 2023 season lasted just four plays thanks to a devastating Achilles injury, the New York Jets quarterback celebrated his 40th birthday in December while he rehabbed. And as he and his team gear up for the 2024 campaign, there are many wondering just how much Rodgers has left in the tank after reaching the life landmark.

Sportscasting.com took a deep dive into the numbers and results for the NFL quarterbacks since 2000 who have played into their 40s. We compared their age-40 seasons with their performances in the previous year, in an attempt to predict how Aaron Rodgers and the Jets will do in 2024.

Key Highlights:

• Only 7 QBs have played into their 40s since the year 2000
• Tom Brady won an NFL MVP award at age 40 in 2017
• Brady, Drew Brees, and Brett Favre all threw for 27+ touchdowns and made the Pro Bowl at age 40
• Based on projections, Rodgers could throw for 4,641 yards, 30 TDs and 6 INTs while leading the Jets to a 13-4 record

Small Sample Size: Only Seven Age-40 QBs in NFL Since 2000

Any quarterback playing into their 40s is an anomaly in itself. Since the year 2000, there have been just seven pass-throwers that have continued on in the league after reaching the milestone. Of those seven, only Tom Brady and Brett Favre played all 16 games in their age-40 season. Drew Brees played in 11, while Matt Hasselbeck and Warrren Moon played in 8. Vinny Testaverde (7) and Brad Johnson (3) round out the entire list.

Hasselbeck and Johnson were on their last legs. Neither of them started a single game the year prior (age 39 season), and the latter had sub-50 passer ratings at age 40. Testaverde finished in the middle of the pack as far as his age-40 performance, but the Jets were 2-5 in the games that he started. Moon went 4-4 as a starter in 1996, and missed the final 8 games with a broken collar bone. Interestingly, he was replaced as the Vikings’ starter by Brad Johnson.

Brady, Brees, & Favre Give Hope For Rodgers

There are some quarterbacks who have thrived at age 40, though. There of course is Tom Brady, who excelled not only early in his fifth decade, but threw for over 27,000 yards and won two Super Bowls after turning 40. Even in comparison to the other “elder” quarterbacks who have played in recent history, Brady’s numbers are astronomical.

But that isn’t to say that Drew Brees and Brett Favre weren’t successful at 40. Brees was a Pro Bowler in 2019 after finishing 2nd in MVP voting the year prior, but his stats were up across the board in the 11 games that he was able to play in.

Favre was even more impressive. Known for being a gunslinger, he threw single digit interceptions for the first time since his rookie season, and had his highest yards per game average in over 10 years. The Vikings were one of the Super Bowl favorites that year, and they finished with a 12-4 record and Favre finished 4th in MVP voting.

Predicting Aaron Rodgers’ Stats For 2024

Where will Rodgers fall on this spectrum once his age-40 season is over? If he were to fall somewhere in the upper echelon with Brady, Brees, and Favre, then his 2024 numbers could look something like this:

For comparison, the league leading in YPG last season finished with 273.9 (CJ Stroud). The 30 touchdowns would have been tied for 4th most in the NFL in 2023, and the passer rating of 108.7 would have been better than every QB in the league other than Brock Purdy. The only QB that had 13 wins last year was Lamar Jackson.

Are the goals and projections lofty? Indeed, especially when the players being compared are some of the best to ever play the position. But Rodgers certainly feels like he belongs in the conversation for best pass throwers of all time, and has had the illustrious career that can back that notion up.

There is a major factor going against the quarterback and his efforts, though. None of the aforementioned pass throwers suffered a debilitating injury so late in their career as Rodgers did. Coming back from an Achilles injury is always a touchy situation, but it will be especially so for someone who is entering their 20th season in the NFL.

According to the sportsbooks and their prop bets involving Aaron Rodgers, the Jets’ quarterback is projected to throw for 3,650 yards and 26 touchdowns to go along with 7 interceptions. New York has an over/under win total of 10.5.