If you’re a baseball fan who likes to bet, you might have wondered, “What does run line mean in betting?” Keep reading to learn more about this form of wagering on the outcome of baseball games.
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What Does Run Line Mean and Is It Mostly +/-1.5?
Whether you’re a total noob or a veteran sports bettor, you’ve probably heard of a point spread or “spread”.
You will encounter spreads when you learn to bet on the NBA or NFL as they involve betting on the margin of victory (or defeat) for a given team. Spreads usually make the betting more evenly matched compared to moneylines where the favorite-underdog difference is more starkly reflected in the odds. This is because the perceived strength of one team is compensated in the betting by giving them an additional handicap to overcome. Spreads can therefore offer better value than the win outright market.
The run line is baseball’s version of a point spread (since the objective is to score “runs” not “points”). A run line of +/-1.5 means that one team is favored to win by 1.5 runs (i.e. by two runs or more), while the other team is considered the underdog and must avoid defeat by two runs or more.
It is a particularly popular market among the top MLB sportsbooks. Due to the relatively low-scoring nature of baseball games, the baseball run line is almost always +/-1.5. In contrast, other sports with higher scoring outcomes tend to have a wider range of point spreads.
However, there are still options for alternate run lines, where the margins can go up to +/- 2.5 runs or more. A good majority of offshore sportsbooks offer these additional run lines for more risk-averse bettors.
MLB Run Line Betting Examples
A couple of examples and a brief explanation can illustrate how run line betting works.
Example 1: Two equally matched teams
Let’s say the New York Yankees are playing the Boston Red Sox and the moneyline reads:
- Yankees: +110
- Red Sox: -120
As you can see, the Yankees are the slight underdog, while the Red Sox are the slight favorite. The corresponding run line could read:
- New York Yankees: +1.5 (-106)
- Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (-115)
The Yankees are still the underdog in this example, but the difference between the odds has narrowed. Their underdog status is indicated by their run line of +1.5 and their odds of -106. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are still the favorite. This is indicated by their run line of -1.5 and odds of -115.
In this example, the Yankees can lose by one run and still cover the spread (they can also win of course). Meanwhile, the Red Sox need to win by two runs or more to cover the spread.
Example 2: One team is a strong favorite
- Los Angeles Dodgers: -160
- Chicago Cubs: +105
In this example, the Dodgers are the favorite to win. For such an event, the run lines may look like:
- Dodgers: -2.5 (-120)
- Cubs: +2.5 (+140)
This example illustrates the classic scenario in which the Dodgers have to win by at least three runs for the bettor to win their spread. Meanwhile, the Cubs can either win the game or lose by no more than two runs for them to cover the +2.5 spread.
How Run Line Betting Odds Work
Knowing who the underdog and the favorite are in a baseball game is the first step in understanding how run line betting works. Once you’ve identified this, the next step is consulting the odds. In the American odds system, these are based around a value of $100.
For example:
Team Run Line Total Moneyline PHI Phillies -1.5
-120O 7.5
-115-205 PIT Pirates +1.5
+108U 7.5
+106+175 In this example, the Phillies have a run line of -1.5. This means they are the favorite and must win by at least two runs for the bet to come in. The Pirates are the underdog and can lose by up to one run or win the game for the bettor to win. The key point is it isn’t just about which MLB team wins, but the margin of that win.
The -120 and the +108 figures represent the odds. They are based on a value of $100. For example, with the Phillies at -1.5 (-120), bettors need to wager $120 to win $100 (giving a total payout of $220). For the Pirates at +1.5 (+108), bettors can win $108 with a $100 bet (giving a total payout of $208).
Vig or Juice in Runline Betting
The terms “vig” and “juice” refer to the commission or fee charged by the sportsbook for accepting your bet. Basically, it’s the way a sportsbook makes profit.
The vig or juice is relatively transparent and easy to understand. For example, when you see the odds for a run line set to -120, it means that you have to bet $120 to win $100. The additional $20 is the vig.
You’ll see different vig numbers on the run line depending on the odds. The numbers will constantly shift as new bets come in. This creates the balance necessary to ensure that bookmakers can turn a profit.
Run Line Movement
Sportsbooks regularly adjust the run line to reflect the most up-to-date odds of each team. The numbers will fluctuate up to the start of the game. This reflects betting volume, injury news, weather conditions, and other information that could potentially affect the game’s outcome.
It’s important to note that even if the run line goes up or down, whatever the run line was at the time of your wager will stay constant for your circumstances. So, if you bet $100 on the Phillies -1.5 (+130) and the price adjusts to +140, your wager is still going to be paid out at the +130 that you locked in when you bet.
Types of Run Line Bets
The world of sports betting would be boring if there was only one way to bet! To spice things up, there are different types of run line bets that allow you to experiment with various strategies and outcomes. Some decrease your risk while others allow for juicier payouts.
First Five Run Lines
Nine innings can be a long time and anything can happen, especially when the starting pitcher gets relieved. Because the sportsbook shows the starting pitcher in a run line bet, many bettors prefer to bet based solely on that pitcher’s performance. With the first five run lines, the outcome of a wager is based on the score of the first five innings of the game. This could make it an easier bet to predict as there is a greater chance of having a constant pitcher.
Reverse Run Lines
Reverse run lines flip the underdog and favorite +/-1.5 run line on its head. With a reverse run line, you’re betting on the underdog to cover. If you think the underdog has a decent chance of winning by at least two runs, you could get a pretty good payout.
Alternate Run Lines
Instead of the classic +/-1.5 run line, alternate run lines can offer higher spreads of 2.5 runs, 3.5 runs, and so on. This requires the favorite to win by at least three or four runs respectively. This means you can still win your wager if the underdog loses by two or three runs.
Run Line Betting vs. Moneyline Betting
How you bet is a matter of personal preference. You may be unsure whether run line betting or moneyline betting is best for you.
Moneyline betting involves betting on the winning team, regardless of the point spread. Even if the Kansas City Royals edge out the Los Angeles Dodgers by just one run, a moneyline bet on the Royals will equal a payout.
While moneyline betting is more straightforward and based simply on who wins or loses, it’s not nearly as exciting as run line betting. With run line baseball betting, you have more control over risk and payout potential. This means you can ultimately get better value for favorites and underdogs than with the money line.
Run Line Betting Strategies and Tips
Before you place your first run line bet, it’s helpful to follow some winning strategies. While no strategy can guarantee a winning bet, following a few best practices could improve your odds.
First, don’t place bets on a whim; always research the team and the point spread thoroughly before placing a bet. It also helps to shop around for the best offshore sportsbooks to find the best odds for the bet you’re considering. Each bookmaker decides their own odds, and you may agree with some more than others.
Part of researching involves examining the team’s run line records and using that information to shape your bet. But you should also keep a close eye on small details, like the scheduled pitcher and the expected weather conditions. Both of these factors can change leading up to the game, so watch out for them and other elements that could affect your bet.
Conclusion
Run line betting can add an additional thrill to a baseball game. This betting method provides bettors with a wider range of options to engage in this great American pastime. It could also leave you with a higher payout when you place a winning bet compared to moneyline betting. Still, it’s important to gamble responsibly and only wager money you’re willing to lose.
Run Line Betting FAQs
What does run line mean in baseball betting?
What does -1.5 run line mean in baseball betting?
Is the run line always +/-1.5 for MLB games?
Is the moneyline or run line better value?
Does the run line include extra innings?
How do run line odds work?
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