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All posts by David MyersUnderdog betting involves wagering on a team or competitor with a lower chance of winning a contest, according to the odds. Indeed, the underdog commonly carries longer odds, meaning a successful bet on the underdog can yield a rewarding payoff.
In this article, we look at critical points about underdog sports betting, find out exactly what it is, who is the underdog, give examples, explain how it works, what the best sports are for underdog betting, discuss its profitability, what affects their odds, provide underdog betting tips, strategies, and more.
What’s an Underdog in Sports Betting?
In legal sports betting terms, an underdog is the team or competitor that bookmakers and gambling sites consider to have a lower likelihood of winning an upcoming contest. So, who is the underdog in betting? Simply put, an underdog’s polar opposite is the favorite team or competitor oddsmakers expect to win. Now we know what it is, let’s look at an example to find out how does underdog betting work, and how profitable it is.
A game between teams A and B carries the following odds:
- Team A: -100 (the – indicates favorites)
- Team B: +200(the + indicates underdogs)
If you place a $100 single bet on Team A to win and your bet succeeds, the bookmaker will pay you $200 ($100 stake + $100 profit)
In contrast:
If you wager a $100 single bet on Team B to win and your bet succeeds, an offshore sportsbook will pay you $300 ($100 stake + $200 profit). Looking at the potential increase in your profitability, underdog betting becomes a highly attractive option.
Odds Profit from a $100 bet +100 $100 +125 $125 +150 $150 +175 $175 +200 $200 +250 $250 +300 $300 +350 $350 +400 $400 How Does Underdog Betting Work?
Underdog betting refers to backing the team or player least likely to win an event. A favorite team or player is expected to win in all matches, leaving the opposing team as underdogs or their less favored counterpart. Bookmakers commonly (but not always) offer better odds for underdogs because they believe the underdogs to have a lower chance of winning. Knowing how to recognize the opportunity can work to your advantage.
You can apply underdog betting strategies across nearly any sports type, including NFL betting, NBA, MLB, and NHL to soccer and tennis. It’s not limited to a specific sport, game, or league. The most straightforward bet type for underdog betting is moneyline. At the safest betting sites you still place your wager on the underdog to win outright but at greatly improved odds.
Once you recognize the value of underdog betting, you’ll remember numerous recent upsets where underdog betting could have made you a fortune.
In the 2023-24 season, the NFL underdogs went 87-187 SU to yield a negative profit. Blindly picking and laying moneyline bets would have culminated in a net loss. The season did, however, deliver a few memorable upsets:
- 24 September 2023: Arizona Cardinals beat Dallas Cowboys 28-16
- 04 December 2023: Cincinnati Bengals beat Jacksonville Jaguars 34-31 in overtime
- 11 December 2023: Tennessee Titans beat Miami Dolphins 28-27
- 25 December 2023: Las Vegas Raiders beat Kansas City Chiefs 20-14
- 31 December 2023: Arizona Cardinals beat Philadelphia Eagles 35-31
Think back to the biggest sports upsets in history:
- Super Bowl III (1969) – The New York Jets, led by Joe Namath, defeated the heavily favored Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III. The Colts were 18-point favorites, but the Jets won 16-71.
- Miracle on Ice (1980) – The United States ice hockey team, composed of amateur players, defeated the Soviet Union in the Winter Olympics semi-finals. The Soviets were dominant and had won the previous four Olympic gold medals.
- Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson (1990) – Buster Douglas, a 42-to-1 underdog, knocked out Mike Tyson in one of boxing’s biggest upsets.
- Super Bowl XLII (2008) – The New York Giants upset the previously undefeated New England Patriots, winning 20-17. The Patriots were 12.5-point favorites.
- Leicester City’s Premier League Title (2016) – Leicester City, a 5000-to-1 underdog at the start of the season, won the English Premier League title, defying all odds.
- UMBC vs. UVA (2018) – UMBC (University of Maryland, Baltimore County) became the first No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed (UVA) in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
- Liverpool vs. Barcelona (2019) – Liverpool overcame a 3-0 deficit from the first leg to beat Barcelona 4-0 in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals.
Favorite vs Underdog Betting
Underdog betting is a value proposition. Underdogs typically offer longer odds, meaning a successful bet is more profitable. Moreover, bookmakers set odds based on bettor and public perception, team reputation, recent form, and other internal factors.
Sometimes, bookmakers overestimate favorites’ chances or underestimate underdogs. Then, the odds don’t accurately reflect actual probabilities.
When favorites are heavily favored, the odds don’t offer much value. Overbetting favorites could lead to long-term losses if you consistently pay too much for high-probability outcomes. It’s not just about winning; it’s about finding value in each bet or opportunity. Underdog betting isn’t about blindly backing every long shot; it’s about finding value others overlook, especially in the live betting markets when can grow even bigger.
Best Sports for Underdogs
Betting on the underdog often means there’s more to a team or event than meets the eye. Although underdog betting can be applied to any sport, some create more opportunities due to their dynamic nature.
NFL
In NFL betting, underdogs have oddsmakers believe they stand a lower chance of winning a particular game. These teams usually give positive point spreads (e.g., +3.5 points). Look for strong defensive teams facing opponents with struggling offense lines. If the underdog’s defense can keep the game low-scoring, they might cover the spread or even pull off an upset.
NBA
Underdogs in the NBA often shine during the regular season. Teams with less star power regularly surprise favorites. Pay attention to regular events where underdogs possess a strong bench or play well defensively. They might not win outright, but they can cover the point spread.
NHL
NHL underdogs are often interesting since hockey games can swing so dramatically. A hot goalie makes all the difference. Consider betting on underdogs facing tired opponents (for instance, playing the second night of a back-to-back). Fatigue affects performance, and underdogs can capitalize.
MLB
Baseball underdogs are often undervalued due to the long season and the unpredictability of individual games. Look for underrated starting pitchers or face favorable matchups. Remember, home-field advantage matters far less in baseball, so road underdogs often deliver surprising results.
Soccer
In Soccer, underdogs can provide excellent value, especially in cup competitions or when facing top-tier teams. Analyze team form, injuries, and tactical setups. A disciplined defensive approach can frustrate stronger opponents and lead to draws or upsets.
Tennis
Tennis underdogs are common in early tournament rounds, with lesser-known players regularly upsetting higher-ranked opponents. Keep an eye on players who perform well on specific surfaces (grass, clay, hard court); surface expertise can level the playing field.
Underdogs for Alternative Markets and Other Bets
At the best betting sites, favorites often steal the spotlight and undervalue the underdog. In addition to the ubiquitous use of moneyline betting to extract a profit from underdog betting, you should consider a few other markets to expand the scope of your betting strategies.
Over/Under Betting
In over/under betting (totals betting), you’re not concerned with which team wins or loses. Instead, you focus on the total combined score of both teams in a game. You decide whether the actual total points scored will be higher (over) or lower (under) than that line.
For example, in an NBA basketball game, if the over/under line is set at 215 points, you can bet on whether the total points scored by both teams will be more or less than 215.
Underdog Betting Strategy: When considering over/under bets, pay attention to matchups, team styles, and recent trends. Sometimes, underdogs can surprise with strong defensive play, leading to lower-scoring games. Analyze factors like pace, injuries, and historical performance to make informed decisions.
Prop Betting
Prop betting involves wagering on specific events or outcomes within a game rather than the overall result. These can be player-specific or team-specific.
Examples of players props include predicting which player will score the first touchdown in a football game, how many strikeouts a pitcher will record in a baseball game, or whether a basketball player will achieve a double-double.
Underdog Betting System: Look for hidden value in prop bets. Sometimes, bookmakers focus more on popular players or teams, leaving opportunities for underdogs. Research player stats, recent form, and matchups to find favorable prop bets.
Spread
Spread betting levels the playing field by giving the underdog points (or goals) and subtracting points from the favorite. The point spread represents the margin of victory the favorite is expected to win by.
For example, if Team A is favored by 7 points, they must win by more than 7 for a spread bet on them to succeed. Conversely, if you bet on the underdog (Team B), they can lose by up to 6 points (or win outright) for your bet to win.
Underdog Betting Strategy: When betting against the spread, consider underdogs with strong defensive capabilities or adept at covering spreads. Look for situations where the underdog might exceed expectations, especially when playing at home.
Is Betting on Underdogs Profitable?
Underdogs typically carry longer odds than favorites, meaning payouts can be substantial. Yes, betting on underdogs can be profitable, but there are no guarantees, it’s like rolling the dice. The odds are bigger because the risk is higher.
This is why research is everything. If you’re serious, analyze team dynamics, player form, injuries, and historical performance. There must be a method to your madness. An injury-riddled favorite might be vulnerable, while an underdog could have hidden strengths.
Are Underdog Odds Always Positive?
There are scenarios where underdog odds can be negative. It happens when oddsmakers believe the underdog stands a higher chance of winning than the favorite. Then, the odds are inverted.
Team Moneyline Odds Dallas Cowboys -110 Kansas City Chiefs -115 Underdog Betting Tips and Strategy
Whether you are using a new betting site or a cash-out betting site, you’ll recognize opportunities for underdog betting by looking for the following factors, so consider adding them to your MLB underdog betting system. They’re at the core of any effective NFL, NHL, or MLB underdog betting strategy.
✅ Extensive Research: Compare the odds the sharpest betting sites offer and read their T&Cs. Look for situations where the underdog’s odds seem undervalued. Analyze matchups and consider recent form, injuries, and other factors relevant to each sport.
✅ Attractive Odds: Underdogs come with attractive odds. Sometimes, these odds are so significant that even if you lose more often than you win, the occasional big payout makes it worthwhile.
✅ Recent & Historical Performance: Based on your knowledge of the sport/team/player, an analysis of their latest win/loss could indicate an unexpected return to form. For instance, after a series of losses against top-echelon opponents, an upper mid-level team may suddenly return to form when facing weaker bottom-of-the-league opponents.
✅ Bet Line Analysis: Monitor how betting lines move; sudden odds shifts could reflect other bettors finding value in the underdog.
✅ Strengths and Weaknesses: Understand the context of each sport. Consider team dynamics, home-field advantage, injuries, transfers, rule changes, and other factors affecting the sport/team.
✅ Risk vs. Reward Analysis: Don’t let emotions affect your decisions or blindly bet on underdogs; make informed decisions and weigh risk vs. reward when deciding your risk percentage.
✅ Bankroll Management: Allocate a portion of your bankroll specifically for underdog bets. Be disciplined and avoid chasing losses. Remember to gamble responsibly.
Is Underdog Betting Legal?
Underdog betting is currently legal in all U.S. states that legalized sports betting. Bettors must be 18 years old or older to participate, except in a few states: Alabama (19+), Arizona (21+), Nebraska (19+), and Massachusetts (21+). There are a few notable exceptions; unfortunately, underdog Fantasy Pick’em is no longer accessible in Maine.
On the subject of these underdog fantasy contests, Underdog Fantasy Pick’em is available in all Canadian provinces except Ontario; for the record, Underdog Fantasy is unavailable in Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, Nevada, and Washington.
Pros and Cons of Betting Underdogs
Wagering on underdogs can offer substantial rewards. Despite their lower perceived chances of winning, underdogs often come with attractive odds. We offer a few advantages and disadvantages, highlighting why this strategy can be enticing. They provide bigger profits because underdogs typically have higher odds.
Analyzing team dynamics, recent form, injuries, and other factors can give you an edge because long-term success in underdog betting isn’t about luck; it’s about making informed choices based on data and intuition.
Pros
- Underdogs carry higher odds
- Adds to the psychological thrill
- Exploit market inefficiencies
- A contrarian approach pays off.
- Diversification of your overall strategies
Cons
- Lower Strike-Rate
- Inconsistent Performance
- Research Intensity
- Emotional Stress
- Risk of Blowouts
Underdogs in Sports Betting FAQs
Is underdog betting real?
Does the underdog have positive or negative odds alongside them?
Can you make money betting on the underdog?
How often do underdogs win in betting?
Is an underdog the same as an outsider?
Do underdogs have big odds?
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