Can The Orlando Magic Survive Without Paolo Banchero?

It was announced Thursday evening that Orlando Magic star Paolo Banchero will be missing at least four-to-six weeks because of a torn right oblique. Last season, Banchero earned his first All-Star appearance and led the upstart Magic to the No. 5 seed out East. He was playing even better to open this year.

Just In: Orlando Magic superstar Paolo Banchero has been diagnosed with a torn right oblique and is sidelined indefinitely, sources tell ESPN. He will be re-evaluated in four-to-six weeks and return to play will be based on how he responds to treatment. pic.twitter.com/hq4qh7IONa

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) November 1, 2024

You never want to see a player go down with an injury, but the Banchero news is especially crushing. He was in the midst of a breakout campaign, averaging 29 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.4 combined steals and blocks stocks on 59 percent true shooting through five games for 3-2 Magic.

As a team with playoff aspirations, the duty will transfer over to Banchero’s contemporaries to hold down the fort in his absence. So, can Orlando stay afloat without its former No. 1 pick?

The Magic Should Be OK Without Banchero In The Short-Term

For some reason, I have earned a reputation as being anti-Banchero. While I understand why some of my previous takes may have rubbed his advocates the wrong way, I resent the notion. In fact, I am pro-Banchero, particularly the version of him we’ve seen this year. With Banchero on the floor this season, the Magic are in the 72nd percentile in offensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass.

Clearly, Banchero is enhancing the Magic. Last year, however, with largely the same personnel around him, the Magic offense was actually 4.1 points worse per 100 possessions when Banchero was on the court.

With Banchero on the bench, Franz Wagner and Cole Anthony stepped into larger offensive roles. According to PBPStats, Wagner averaged 35.8 points per 100 (7.2 points higher than when alongside Banchero) on 60.9 percent true shooting (4.8 percent higher) in his 538 minutes without Banchero. Meanwhile, Anthony tallied 29.4 points per 100 (6.9 higher) on 56.6 percent true shooting (5.7 percent higher) in his 938 minutes sans Banchero.

Although, it should be noted Anthony has struggled immensely thus far this season and fell out of Orlando’s rotation last game; he’ll have to rediscover his offensive punch in the coming weeks.

Those two, with the help of Joe Ingles (no longer in Orlando), Jonathan Isaac and Mo Wagner, guided the Magic to a 125.7 offensive rating (78th percentile) in 144 non-garbage time possessions together.

Banchero isn’t the same player as last year. He doesn’t have the same bad habits, namely settling for as many low-percentage jumpers rather than using his bulldozer build to pave his way into the paint. His willingness to settle hampered the Magic’s offense at times. But Orlando has proven it can get by offensively behind Wagner and (a renewed version of) Anthony.

Even if the Magic’s offense slips, their suffocating defense could tighten their laces. Prior to this injury, they were starting Banchero, Wagner, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jalen Suggs, and Wendell Carter Jr. Of that five-man unit, it isn’t a stretch to say Banchero is the weakest defender; his 2023-24 Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus was tied for the lowest of the group, too.

Now that Banchero is sidelined, the Magic can triple down on their defensive identity. They’ll likely give more minutes to defensively slanted players like Isaac, Anthony Black (a strong candidate to take a sophomore leap) and Gary Harris.

Remember that lineup cited earlier featuring Wagner and Anthony? If you swap Ingles for Harris, you get the Magic’s best statistical defensive combination of 2023-24. In their 157 non-garbage time possessions, they owned a 94.3 defensive rating (98th percentile).

If the Magic want to reach their ceiling, they will need a healthy and ready-for-battle Banchero. This is in no way an attempt to “Ewing Theory” their ascending star. But last year’s team showed us the Magic should be able to survive without Banchero — at least in the short term — by leaning on their defense.