One Question For Each NBA Team In The 2024-2025 Southwest Division

The NBA season is around the corner, and to preview the upcoming year, our group of experts has been asked to think of one question for every team.

Here it is for the Southwest division!

Houston Rockets: Can their young guns develop and help buoy a shaky offense?

After three seasons of nestling near the bottom of the league, year four of the Houston Rockets’ rebuild saw them enjoy sizable steps forward. Free agent acquisitions Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks proved instrumental in helping vault Houston from 22 to 41 wins, while youngsters such as Alperen Şengün and Jabari Smith Jr. progressed vitally and swimmingly in their own rights. 

The backbone of the Rockets’ Play-In hopes resided in their defense. Flirting with a top-five finish much of the season, they ended seventh in defensive rating — anchored by the likes of Brooks, VanVleet, and Amen Thompson. Yet they ultimately fell five games short of the 10 seed because of a rickety, cumbersome, 20th-ranked offense. 

As they enter 2024-25, aspirations of a postseason appearance will be contingent on their youthful cadre to trend that offense closer toward league average or better. Jalen Green is readying for year four following another underwhelming, mercurial campaign. Can he fine-tune his pacing and finishing as a driver? Can he become a bona fide floor-spacer for a team desperately seeking it?

How can Smith build upon his positive second season? Will Şengün ride his breakout into full-fledged stardom and further diversify his scoring arsenal?

What does the versatile combo guard Reed Sheppard provide in his inaugural season? Does the appeal of his on- and off-ball duality alleviate some ball-handling burden for VanVleet and shift less focus on a long-awaited leap from Green? 

What does Thompson’s usage/role look like, and how much do his slashing and playmaking pop? Is there any progress with his jumper? Does Cam Whitmore parlay an encouraging final four months of 2023-24 into becoming an electric, malleable reserve scorer? 

Tari Eason was saddled with injury last year and is a dynamite defender, but growth as a finisher and shooter would be welcomed wrinkles, too. 

General development from any or all of these players should behoove the Rockets. I expect their aggressive, connected defense will be stingy again. But to really ascend to another tier in this crowded Western Conference, the offense must improve. The most plausible route for that improvement is through their stockpile of young, recently talented draftees. – Jackson Frank 

New Orleans Pelicans: Will they ever make the right trade?

We can talk about Zion Williamson’s health all day, but the truth is that even if he is in uniform, the New Orleans Pelicans will be hampered by their poor roster construction. 

To seriously compete for an NBA Championship, there is a certain talent threshold your roster needs to hit. The Pelicans qualify in this regard. But along with talent, you also need lineup balance to hang with the big dogs.

With Williamson, Dejounte Murray, and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans have too much on-ball creation and insufficient spacing or defense. Their talent doesn’t fit properly, which handicaps their upside. 

But never fear. In theory, it is easier to acquire fit than it is talent. So, the Pelicans should be able to move one of their three stars for role players who give them more shooting (24th in 3-point attempts) and/or rim protection (21st in blocks per 100 possessions).

Williamson is the best of the bunch, and they just traded for Murray. That makes Ingram the most obvious candidate. Unfortunately, at this time, he has very few suitors. 

Can the Pelicans find a way to flip Ingram for players that complement Williamson and Murray? If so, they instantly become one of the best teams in the West. But if not…oh boy.  – Mat Issa

San Antonio Spurs: How far can Wemby’s stardom push the Spurs?

The Spurs will go as far as Victor Wembanyama can drag them. After a historic rookie season, it’s feasible to expect Wemby to compete for an All-NBA selection. Even if Wembanyama does reach those heights, San Antonio will face an uphill battle to push for a play-in spot in a loaded Western Conference.

San Antonio’s offseason additions — primarily Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes — will hope to lift their offense from a 26th-place finish last season. Another leap from Devin Vassell on the first year of his $135 million rookie extension would help the offense tremendously. Vassell already established himself as one of the league’s premier rising wing shotmakers and should continue to grow as a secondary initiator next to Wembanyama,

Despite their veteran additions, developing young talent will be critical for the Spurs’ long-term outlook. Fourth overall pick Stephon Castle should step in as an impactful defender and connective playmaker, but can he develop the scoring threat requisite of an on-ball creator? Will one or multiple of Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham or Blake Wesley take another leap?

Outside of Wembanyama and Vassell, San Antonio’s roster features stopgap veterans and unproven young players. Squeaking into the playoffs would be a phenomenal achievement for this Spurs team, but even another Wembanyama leap might not suffice. Building confidence in the young core’s long-term viability would pay dividends for San Antonio’s bright future. – Ben Pfeifer

Dallas Mavericks: How will they balance defense and offense with Klay Thompson? 

After acquiring PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, the Dallas Mavericks developed a potent defensive identity that allowed the sixth-fewest points per 100 possessions after the trade deadline. It propelled them to an NBA Finals run where their offense inevitably failed them. 

The Mavs tried to strike a balance this summer by swapping Derrick Jones Jr., their wing stopper, for long-time Golden State Warriors sharpshooter Klay Thompson. Incorporating Klay, who has forever been indoctrinated in the Dubs movement offense, into the Mavericks’ isolation-heavy system will come with its own set of questions. 

But how will the Mavericks deal with the trade-off defensively? Thompson isn’t the defender he once was and can’t assume the role of ‘stopper’ like Jones Jr. did. How do the Mavericks succeed at the point-of-attack with all three of Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Thompson – three players who don’t necessarily get lauded for their defensive contributions? 

Jason Kidd and the Mavericks coaching staff did a good job of insulating Doncic and Irving’s defensive warts by surrounding them with elite defensive talents like Jones Jr., Washington, Gafford, and Dereck Lively, but could Thompson’s presence be the straw that breaks the camel’s back? — Es Baraheni

Memphis Grizzlies: Can they sustainably space the floor for their stars to operate? 

First, let’s just take a second and hope the Grizzlies will have a relatively healthy season. Because, above all else, nothing will matter if they don’t. 

That said, the on-court question that looms for the healthy version of this team has lingered for as long as Memphis has committed to the Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. core: Do they have enough shooting? 

Bane is obviously one of the league’s best in the department, but Morant is a below-average shooter, and Jackson Jr. is streaky, to say the least. After having an impressive 2019-2020 shooting year, Jackson has regressed to a 32% shooting across his last four seasons, and while I believe he can do better than that – at some point, you are who you are. 

The question doesn’t necessarily evaporate when I look at the rest of their rotation. Rookie big man Zach Edey has shown some practice-level feel as a shooter, but that is incredibly theoretical at this point. The presumed fifth starter, Marcus Smart, is a below-average shooter for his position, much like Morant. 

Luke Kennard is the other marksman on this team, and while he can absolutely light it up from behind-the-arc, he exposes them on the defensive end in a major way. Perhaps Santi Aldama can make a leap as a shooter. He shot 35% on good volume over the last two seasons, and his length makes him a pretty versatile option to throw out in starter-heavy lineups. 

That said, I’m just happy to be able to watch the Grizzlies at full strength again. Shooting concerns be damned. — Es Baraheni