UFC 307 Odds, Predictions, & Best Prop Bets

This Saturday, the Octagon returns to Salt Lake City for UFC 307, headlined by a light heavyweight title clash between champion Alex Pereira and challenger Khalil Rountree Jr.

Pereira, the former two-division champion, aims for his third successful title defense of 2024. The Brazilian knockout artist faces a stern test in Rountree, who rides a five-fight win streak into his first UFC title shot.

The co-main event features a women’s bantamweight title bout as Raquel Pennington looks to defend her title against former champion Julianna Peña.

UFC legend Jose Aldo makes his highly anticipated return against rising contender Mario Bautista, while Olympic gold medalist Kayla Harrison steps inside the Octagon against Ketlen Vieira.

The main card is rounded out by an intriguing middleweight clash between Roman Dolidze and fan-favorite Kevin Holland.

The prelims offer plenty of action, highlighted by a welterweight showdown between Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Joaquin Buckley.

With a stacked lineup from top to bottom, UFC 307 promises fireworks and potential shake-ups in multiple divisions. Fight fans won’t want to miss this action-packed pay-per-view event live from the Delta Center.

UFC 307 should be an exciting night of fights with that said, let’s take a look at the odds, best bets, and props for this event.

UFC 307 Odds

UFC 307 Best Bets & Props

Jose Aldo (+124)

Jose Aldo, despite being the underdog, is poised to defeat Mario Bautista at UFC 307 this weekend. The former featherweight champion’s experience and technical prowess will likely prove too much for the rising contender.

Aldo’s world-class striking remains a formidable weapon. His precise boxing and devastating leg kicks could pose significant problems for Bautista, who has shown vulnerability on the feet in past fights. With his renowned takedown defense, Aldo can likely neutralize Bautista’s grappling attempts, forcing the fight to remain standing where he holds a clear advantage.

The Brazilian’s veteran savvy and ability to control distance will be crucial. Expect Aldo to employ his superior footwork and counter-striking to frustrate Bautista and potentially break him mentally as the fight progresses. Aldo’s impressive win over Jonathan Martinez at UFC 301 demonstrated he still possesses the speed and timing that made him a champion.

While Bautista is on a six-fight win streak, he has yet to face an opponent of Aldo’s caliber. The legend’s ability to adapt and perform under pressure could be the deciding factor[2]. Aldo’s takedown defense of 91% will likely negate Bautista’s grappling advantage, allowing him to dictate the pace and keep the fight in his preferred striking realm.

In a contest that pits experience against youth, Aldo’s technical superiority and championship pedigree should ultimately prevail.

Tecia Pennington (-185)

Tecia Pennington is primed to defeat Carla Esparza at UFC 307 this weekend, marking a significant victory in her career and potentially sending Esparza into retirement on a loss.

Pennington’s striking prowess will be the key factor in this matchup. She lands an impressive 4.78 significant strikes per minute with 47% accuracy, outpacing Esparza’s offensive output. This volume and precision should allow Pennington to control the striking exchanges and accumulate damage throughout the fight.

While Esparza is known for her wrestling, Pennington’s 65% takedown defense should prove sufficient to keep the fight standing. By neutralizing Esparza’s grappling, Pennington can force the fight to remain in her preferred realm of striking.

Pennington’s cardio and durability will also play a crucial role. With an average fight time of 13:48, she has shown the ability to maintain a high pace throughout three rounds. This endurance could wear down Esparza, especially if she’s unable to implement her wrestling-heavy gameplan.

Furthermore, Pennington’s recent experience as a mother may provide additional motivation and mental toughness. Her ability to overcome the physical challenges of returning to competition after childbirth demonstrates her resilience and determination.

In a fight that’s likely to go the distance, Pennington’s superior striking and ability to defend takedowns should earn her a decisive victory over the retiring Esparza.

Austin Hubbard (+130)

Austin Hubbard is poised to upset Alexander Hernandez at UFC 307 this weekend, showcasing his resilience and well-rounded skillset.

Hubbard’s striking accuracy of 51.76% outshines Hernandez’s 44.93%, indicating he’ll likely land more significant strikes throughout the fight. His ability to maintain a high output of 4.11 significant strikes per minute will keep Hernandez on the defensive.

While Hernandez is known for his aggressive style, Hubbard’s 65% takedown defense should prove crucial in neutralizing any grappling attempts. This will force Hernandez to engage in a striking battle where Hubbard holds the advantage.

Hubbard’s durability and cardio are key factors. With an average fight time of 12:23 compared to Hernandez’s 9:50, Hubbard is better equipped for a grueling three-round affair. His recent performance against Michal Figlak demonstrated his ability to maintain composure and implement an effective gameplan over the full duration.

Hernandez’s recent struggles, going 1-4 in his last five fights, suggest he may be facing confidence issues. In contrast, Hubbard’s alternating record shows his ability to bounce back from losses and adapt his approach.

Given the stylistic matchup and recent form, Hubbard’s toughness and well-rounded skills should carry him to a hard-fought decision victory over Hernandez at UFC 307.