NBA

5 Sneaky sophomores who could breakout in 2024-25

By
Mat Issa
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Mat Issa Sports Editor

Mat Issa is a National NBA Writer. Mat is based in Sterling Heights, Michigan. Yes, he spells his name with one "t." He went to Michigan State University for seven years, earning his Bachelor's Degree and Juris Doctor. Now, he covers the NBA at large for Forbes, The Analyst, FanSided, and, of course, Sportscasting. His work has also been featured on ESPN, The Sporting News, and SB Nation, among other places. Go Green!

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Published4 hours ago on October 04, 2024

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Anthony Black, Orlando Magic.

One of the most interesting storylines to monitor during the NBA season is the growth of young prospects from Year One to Year Two. Sure, they showed flashes of excellence as rookies. But can they turn those moments of brilliance into consistent production?

In this article, the Sportscasting NBA crew (comprised of myself, Esfandiar Baraheni, Jackson Frank, and Ben Pfeifer) will look at five rising sophomores who are primed to take big steps forward. But to keep things fun, we are not allowing ourselves to pick anyone who was a 2023-24 First Team All-Rookie selection. After all, anyone can predict that Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren are going to come back as improved players. Writing about that doesn’t make for clever analysis. What really matters is being able to identify those sneaky sophomore studs. 

With that all settled, here are our five picks.

#1: Gradey Dick

Baraheni: The second half of Gradey Dick was about as promising as you’d want from the Raptors sharpshooter. After January 1st, Dick hit on 40% of his threes from behind the arc on nearly five attempts a night on fairly high difficulty, making them off the catch, off screens/movement, all while using his high release point to make it tough to contest. Toronto desperately needs shooting outside of Immanuel Quickley, and Dick is a natural source for that skill set. He’s going to see an uptick in minutes and a likely starting spot for a rebuilding team. Besides the perimeter shot, he’s shown some impressive flashes as a cutter and passer, and as his frame fills out, he’ll continue to make strides as a defender.

But the off-ball shooting (and the gravity that comes with it) will help him earn his keep as he fine-tunes those other areas. If last season was any indication — he has the potential to be one of the very best marksmen in the league as soon as this season.

#2: Julian Strawther

Issa: As the old adage goes, success is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. This past offseason, the Denver Nuggets let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk in free agency, opening up a prime ~ opportunity ~ for someone to step up. On the surface, Christian Braun seems like the most likely replacement. But the one with more upside is clearly Julian Strawther.

For the most part, Caldwell-Pope gave the Nuggets spacing, closeout attacking, and defense. Strawther is a much better shooter than Braun. Last year, he shot 9.2 threes per 75 possessions (per Dunks & Threes), while Braun only attempted 3.7 threes per 75 (remember, when it comes to spacing, shooting volume is more important than shooting efficiency). And he’s a better driver – 56.9% true shooting on drives compared to Braun’s 46.9%.

Strawther isn’t the defender that either Braun or Caldwell-Pope are. But that is more because of a lack of strength (something that can be added over time) than a shortage of effort or physical tools (Strawther is 6’7 with a 6’9 wingspan).

It also helps that Strawther has some midrange juice (69th percentile efficiency).

#3: Anthony Black

Frank: As a rookie, Black flirted with a rotation spot early in the season before falling to the wayside come springtime and the playoffs. But the flashes of a high-level defender with a connective, complementary skill-set offensively were evident. Now that Joe Ingles and Markelle Fultz are no longer around, there’s a chance for Black to build on his encouraging debut campaign and solidify himself as a rotational mainstay for the Orlando Magic. 

He drilled a tidy 39.4% of his long balls in 2023-24 (42% from the corners, 35% above the break), is a savvy cutter and shot 63% at the rim (64th percentile among combo guards, per Cleaning The Glass). At 6-foot-7 with shrewd anticipation and slithery screen navigation, Black is a versatile point-of-attack stopper who reinforces Orlando’s defensive-minded ethos. 

Fellow youngsters like Jett Howard and Caleb Houstan should also vie for minutes on the wing. Their promise as versatile, voluminous shooters  – Howard in the G League; Houstan in the NBA last year – could offer more appeal than Black, given the Magic’s need for floor-spacing and abundance of defensive chops already. 

Yet if he can continue knocking down his triples while adding some off-ball movement and playmaking pop, in addition to his feisty defense, he feels like a prime candidate to draw more eyeballs this season, particularly for an ascending team.

#4: Amen Thompson

Pfeifer: I’ve never seen a basketball player quite like Amen Thompson. Maybe his singularity is what captivates me. Thompson’s all-time athletic tools fuel potent advantage creation. He’s a brilliant player, flashing the high-end playmaking chops requisite of a future jumbo point guard. On the defensive end, he wrecked shop, cosplaying as a veteran pro.

And yet Thompson shot 13.8% from three last season, an untenable number for a primary initiating guard. No NBA player shot worse from deep last year. Thompson must progress as a shooter to some level. When he finally reaches the playoffs, savvy defenses will punish that.

Thompson’s adaptability inspires confidence in his development. After returning from an early season injury, Thompson became a potent transition and secondary attacker. When Alperen Sengun went down late in the season, he functioned as a small-ball five. Amen Thompson can weaponize his special traits no matter where on the floor. I’ll always bet on a special athlete with his feel for the game to ascend towards stardom.

#5: Jalen Wilson

Issa: The Brooklyn Nets are going to be a rough watch this year, but it won’t be because of Jalen Wilson. After trading away Mikal Bridges, the Nets announced that they were looking toward the future, and they may very well already have a strong two-way role player in Wilson.

For starters, this dude is sharp. Wilson may not create a ton of turnovers (9th percentile steal rate), but he has a strong sense of where to be on the floor (on both sides of the ball), as evidenced by his knack for cutting.

Wilson is also incredibly physical, using his penchant for bruising to collect offensive rebounds (98th percentile among wings) and guard power forwards (he spent 48% of his minutes at that position, per Basketball Reference). His inclination for contact also translates to his forays to the rim. When he catches passes, he’s fierce and decisive, attacking the rim with reckless abandon (59th percentile rim accuracy).

The part of his game that makes him really intriguing is his burgeoning 3-point game. After only hitting 31.4% of his threes in college, Wilson has hit 39.6% of his threes (232 attempts) since being drafted (that includes Summer League, preseason, regular season, and G-League).

If Wilson can add shooting to his already impressive package of size (6’8), physicality, IQ, defense, and finishing, he could become a starting-caliber player by the end of the 2024-25 season.

User’s Note: Remember, to have a breakout season, you need to have the opportunity to do so. For this reason, we decided against including GG Jackson (who will miss a good chunk of the season with a foot injury) and Cason Wallace (whose growth will likely be stunted by the addition of Alex Caruso). Meanwhile, Dereck Lively II didn’t make the All-Rookie First Team, but given his notoriety from the playoffs, he also felt too obvious to be included in this list.