Thursday Night Football Week 5: Buccaneers vs. Falcons Picks, Predictions, & Best Player Props Bets

Buccaneers vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football features two NFC South hopefuls in the kickoff to Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season. 

Two teams with their eyes on the NFC South crown will collide under the Thursday night lights to open Week 5 in the NFL.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, fresh off a commanding 33-16 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, find themselves in familiar territory—poised to make yet another run at the postseason. The Bucs, now 3-1, are undefeated in conference play and looking to secure a spot in the NFL playoffs for a fifth consecutive season.

But standing in their way are the Atlanta Falcons, a team hungry to break their playoff drought, which has stretched since 2017. Atlanta may have slipped past the New Orleans Saints by a slim 26-24 margin, but at 2-2, with an unblemished record in conference play, they know this game could shift their season’s trajectory. For the Falcons, it’s not just another game—it’s a chance to prove they belong back in the postseason conversation, to show that their time has come again.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Betting Preview

All Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct on Tuesday, Oct. 1.

• Spread
  Falcons -1.5
• Moneyline
  Buccaneers +105 | Falcons -125
• Over/Under
  43.5
• Game time
  8:15 p.m. ET
• Location
  Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta, Georiga
• Predicted Weather at Kick
  72 degrees, Partly Cloudy
• How to Watch
  Amazon Prime Video

Check out all of our NFL picks and best picks here! 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Picks, Predictions, and Best Player Prop Bets

The Atlanta Falcons entered the season with high hopes for their revamped offense, with Kirk Cousins at quarterback and Zac Robinson calling the shots. But the results so far haven’t matched the hype. Ranked 21st in EPA per play and 22nd in first downs per game, Atlanta’s struggles have been most glaring on third down, where they rank 29th, and in the red zone, where they convert just 40% of their opportunities.

Yet, perhaps a bit of grace is in order. The Falcons have faced some of the league’s toughest defenses in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Kansas City, and New Orleans. With time, this offense could find its rhythm.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a pleasant surprise. The new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, has the Bucs firing on all cylinders. They are ranked 8th in EPA per play and are averaging over 24 points per game. Baker Mayfield, signed in the offseason, looks like a smart investment. He’s been efficient and gritty, especially on third downs and in the red zone.

However, there are still questions about Tampa’s true form. Their best performances came against a young Washington defense and an injury-depleted Eagles team. Plus, this matchup marks only their second road game of the season.

Atlanta may find a way to exploit Tampa Bay’s biggest vulnerability — their run defense, which ranks last in EPA allowed per handoff. With injuries on the front seven, the Falcons have a chance to assert themselves.

This game could be a defining moment for Atlanta in a season full of questions. It’s a chance for Cousins and company to take a step forward and declare themselves contenders in the NFC South.

I also believe this game could creep closer to a FG spread by kickoff, so jump on the Falcons as soon as possible.

Kirk Cousins – QB (ATL) OVER/ UNDER 226.5 PASS YDS

While Cousins hasn’t gone off as expected, he has quietly been dependable, hitting his passing prop mark in his last three games, all of which were decided by five points or fewer. He’s growing more comfortable in the Falcons’ offense, finding his rhythm and timing just as Atlanta prepares for this pivotal matchup.

Kirk Cousins right on the money 💰
pic.twitter.com/vDgKB6r9MJ

— PFF (@PFF) September 29, 2024

The Falcons and the Bucs are coming off bruising, physical battles — Atlanta against the Saints and the Bucs against the Eagles. With defenses fatigued and Cousins in sync with his receivers, look for Atlanta to attack downfield after things open up due to Atlanata’s run game. Big plays may be the key to the Falcons getting over the hump and securing a much-needed victory under the lights.

I think this number is too low for Cousins.

Rachaad White – RB (TB) OVER/ UNDER 18.5 REC YDS

Rachaad White came into 2024 as the RB1 in the Bucs backfield, but that doesn’t look like it will be the case to finish 2024. White has been almost invisible in the ground game compared to rookie Bucky Irving. White has posted 115 yards on 41 carries without finding the end zone, while Irving has impressed with 203 yards on 35 carries and a touchdown.

RACHAAD WHITE TAKES IT 40 YARDS FOR THE TOUCHDOWN!!pic.twitter.com/mvy3D8bNi4

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) November 12, 2023

For Tampa Bay, Irving will be the one to soften up Atlanta’s defense with his physical running style, while White will likely serve as the key weapon in long-down situations, carving out a role as a receiving back. White currently ranks third among running backs in routes run this season, and he’s averaging three broken tackles per game—an indicator of his ability to create after the catch.

This matchup sets up perfectly for White’s receiving stats to shine. Atlanta’s defense, coming off a game where they surrendered 42 receiving yards to Alvin Kamara, will need to be on high alert. If the Buccaneers want to move the chains, White’s ability to contribute in the passing game could be a vital part of Tampa’s attack.

I think White could rack up the receiving yards late in the first and second half in this one.

The Prediction: Falcons 24 – Bucs 20

Best Bets:

• Falcons -1.5
• Kirk Cousins OVER 226.5 Passing Yards (-110)
• Rachaad White OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)